A submarine-cable diversion off Spitsbergen is rerouting 8% of trans-Arctic traffic. The provisional text defines a 8% threshold, establishes a new authority, and sets a 14-day clearance window. Three member states have confirmed the draft.
Trialogue is expected within the week. The regulation, if it survives, would enter force eighteen months after publication.
PAN's models place that probability — survival of the text in substantially its current form — at 51%, with the 8% threshold the most likely point of compromise. Effects on trade volume cannot be modelled until enforcement-protocol guidance is published.
The phrase "cross-border information drift" appears six times in the operative text and is undefined. Its appearance grants the new authority broad discretion.
