Vancouver Island needs ‘more certainty’ economic report suggests
There is an uncertain outlook on Vancouver Island for forestry and aquaculture, but emerging opportunities in defence and an ocean economy, stakeholders have been told.
Susan Mowbray, partner in MNP’s Vancouver consulting practice, presented the 2026 State of the Island Economic Report at the annual summit organized by the Vancouver Island Economic Alliance on Wednesday, Oct. 21, giving business and municipal leaders a glimpse at the current state of the economy and the short-term outlook.
“Forestry remains an important part of the Island economy, it’s a lot smaller than it was but it is still really important, particularly in the mid-north Island, but employment has been falling,” Mowbray said.
Curtailments and closures, she explained, stem from a mix of fibre constraints, a slow-down in the U.S. housing market and higher U.S. tariffs.
“There are signs, if you look at the data, that we did see a little bit of harvest volume increase in 2026 versus 2025, but that is all because we’ve had better weather and labour disputes resolved, not because we’re seeing an increased lumber demand.”
Aquaculture also faces an uncertain future with open net-pen salmon farming set to be banned by June 30, 2029 by federal law, and Mowbray pointed out a transition plan has yet to be released.
“We’re getting to that point where we’re going to lose the infrastructure to support it,” she said. “The last crop of fish … is just being put in now, I think about it like a farming thing. What happens to the hatcheries? What happens to the infrastructure to support – because this is the last harvest we’re going to have on salmon farming unless we get some resolution there.”
She stated it is not clear the investment needed to go to closed containment aquaculture would be economically viable, yet a collapse of the industry may have an effect on other forms of aquaculture that rely on shared infrastructure including suppliers and transportation.
“If you don’t have salmon farming it’s not clear there is enough business there to contain it, so it’s not just putting salmon farming at risk.”
All industries aren’t faced with an uncertain outlook.
Mowbray said major projects are the path forward to build Canada strong, and on Vancouver Island that is investment in defence, with CFB Comox and CFB Esquimalt creating opportunities for suppliers as well as dual-use opportunities.
She added that when considering defence procurement trends, a significant portion of defence technology are developed in civilian markets and adapted to defence.
“We have an aerospace industry here on Vancouver Island, we have ocean monitoring, so are those services that we are providing in there, can they move from being civilian applications to being adapted to defence applications?”
For opportunities in an ocean economy, Mowbray pointed to the Island having established marine capabilities, research institutions, ports and coastal communities.
“But none of these opportunities are going to translate into local benefits unless we’re really intentional about it.”
Along with opportunities in defence and an ocean economy, Mowbray said there is a stable, upward trend in the tourism sector.
“Visitor activity, occupancy and room rates have all been trending upward,” she said. “We did some depreciation of the Canadian dollar this year, which was good for the tourism industry, but we also saw nobody wants to go to the U.S. which benefits Canada as a destination as well.”
Still, she warned there is a limit to how many cruise ships can dock in the summer, so communities, mainly Victoria, which is already busy during summertime, should consider how to spread to off-peak seasons and build high value experiences to distribute benefits to more communities.
The ‘knowledge economy’ is also growing, according to her report. This includes professional, scientific and technical services, as well as information and culture.
“At the same time, we’ve seen in the recent employment data it can be cyclical. We actually saw a little pull-back in employment last year and we saw that increase again this year and those sectors are really at risk right now with what is happening with artificial intelligence. There’s a lot of disruption in those businesses about how work is organized and the skills people are going to need going forward.”
Following her presentation, Mowbray told the News Bulletin that she wants people to know the Island is in a situation that is “challenging but not catastrophic.”
“Right now we have to be intentional on what we are doing. We are very dependent on the public sector, more-so on Vancouver Island than B.C. as a whole, just because of the operations of the provincial government, and as we’re seeing cutbacks in both staffing and spending that is affecting businesses and households.”
As a result, she said Vancouver Island needs to consider how to get private sector investment and support local businesses to grow to support a diverse economy.
“The first thing is to create an environment where people are willing to invest. We need more certainty, we need certainty around a lot of different policies, we need certainty around regulatory (rules),” she said.
“The other thing is really encourage people to want to be here. Don’t make it more expensive to be here, and provide services people need.”
