A recent assessment by the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) projects that artificial intelligence (AI) will significantly impact the cyber threat landscape between now and 2027. The report indicates that AI is almost certain to make elements of cyber intrusion operations more effective and efficient, leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of cyber threats.
The NCSC assessment also foresees a digital divide emerging, where systems that keep pace with AI-enabled threats will be more secure than those that lag behind. This disparity will make cybersecurity at scale increasingly important. There is a realistic possibility that critical systems could become more vulnerable to advanced threat actors by 2027 if cybersecurity mitigations do not keep pace with 'frontier AI' capabilities.
The report further suggests that the proliferation of AI-enabled cyber tools will likely expand access to these capabilities for a broader range of state and non-state actors. The increasing integration of AI models into the UK's technology base, including critical national infrastructure, is expected to present a larger attack surface for adversaries.
