New grain crisis in Europe: Russia's war could also affect German bread and meat prices
Russia's war is disrupting grain shipments, and prices are rising in Italy. Will bread and meat also become more expensive in Germany? What consumers should know now.
Frankfurt – For a month, a mill in the Italian city of Modena has been waiting for a delivery of 1,600 tons of grain from Hungary. The transport is not going as planned. Behind this is a problem that is now affecting large parts of the European grain trade: important supply routes are being significantly impaired by the war in Ukraine.
In Italy, prices for wheat and corn have already risen significantly. Germany could also feel the consequences, as the domestic grain harvest was weaker this year than in 2025, while high feed prices and rising transport costs are burdening agriculture.
Drone attacks on grain ships exacerbate the situation
The trigger for the latest escalation is suspected Russian drone attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea. Transport routes used to bring grain from Ukraine to Europe are also affected.
As the Italian newspaper "Corriere della Sera" reports, a ship loaded with about 8,000 tons of grain, which was on its way from the Ukrainian Danube port of Izmail to Ravenna, sank at the beginning of October. In the following days, other cargo ships were attacked in Romanian and Bulgarian waters.
The increasing security risks are making trade more difficult. Insurance is becoming more expensive or is no longer available for certain voyages. Deliveries are being delayed, and traders are having to look for alternative transport routes.
According to a report by the Reuters news agency on October 17, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has therefore called on several neighboring countries to facilitate additional grain shipments through their territories. These include Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary.
Wheat and corn have become significantly more expensive in Italy
The economic consequences are already visible in Italy. According to research by "Corriere della Sera," the price of soft wheat on the Bologna commodity exchange has risen by 24 percent since the renewed escalation. Corn, which is primarily needed as animal feed, has increased in price by 17 percent.
One problem is replacing failed ship transports with rail. A single freight train can carry significantly less grain than a large freighter. At the same time, suitable wagons are in short supply. For food manufacturers, this makes deliveries more expensive and harder to plan.
Germany harvested significantly less grain in 2026
The situation on the agricultural market is also tense in Germany. According to the Federal Government's harvest report from September, farmers expect about 37.4 million tons of grain for 2026, excluding grain maize. That is 7.3 percent less than in the previous year.
Above all, drought and heat have affected yields. Federal Minister of Agriculture Alois Rainer spoke of a "crisis of national proportions" in view of the harvest losses and high production costs.
The weaker harvest does not automatically mean that Germany has too little grain. However, additional disruptions to European trade could also influence purchase prices and delivery conditions in this country.
Corn prices are also high in Germany
The current market report from the North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) agricultural market from October 19 shows that the German grain market is already under pressure.
According to the report, corn prices are remaining at a high level due to the tight supply. Feed mills are therefore increasingly switching to other types of grain. Feed grain and grain by-products have also become more expensive.
In addition, there are transport problems on German waterways. Due to low water levels, many inland vessels cannot be fully loaded. This increases transport costs while delaying deliveries.
These problems exist independently of the recent attacks in the Black Sea. However, further disruptions to international grain trade could increase price pressure.
Will bread and meat now also become more expensive in Germany?
If wheat prices rise, the purchase costs for mills and bakeries can increase. However, the retail price of a loaf of bread does not depend on grain alone. Energy, personnel, rent, and transport also play an important role. Higher wheat prices therefore do not automatically lead to a corresponding price jump at the bakery.
For meat, rising feed prices could become a problem. Feed is an important cost factor, especially in pig and poultry farming. If farmers have to pay more for this in the long term, this can affect consumer prices in the medium to long term.
Figures from the Federal Center for Agriculture show how important grain is for animal husbandry. In the 2024/25 financial year, around 20 million tons of grain were used as animal feed in Germany. This corresponded to well over half of the total domestic grain consumption.
Why Germany is better protected when it comes to wheat
At least Germany has extensive domestic grain production. According to the latest published supply balances, the mathematical self-sufficiency rate for grain as a whole was just under 100 percent in the 2024/25 financial year. For soft wheat, it even reached 108 percent.
However, there are large differences between the types of grain. In the case of durum wheat, which is used for pasta, for example, domestic agriculture covered only 22 percent of demand. International supplies also play an important role in the feed trade.
