The private research organization 'Centre for Policy Dialogue' (CPD) believes that the proposed budget has major disparities in the personal income tax structure. At the same time, the tax burden is increasing more for relatively low-income people under the new tax system, while the rate of increase in tax liability is comparatively lower for high-income individuals.
On Sunday, at a budget review event held at the Lakeshore Hotel in Gulshan, Dhaka, CPD Executive Director Fahmida Khatun presented this information during the keynote presentation.
Fahmida Khatun said that for those with an annual taxable income of 6 to 15 lakh taka, their tax liability will increase by 12.5 to 16.7 percent under the new budget.
In contrast, for those earning more than 30 lakh taka, the tax liability will increase by only 7.6 percent. According to her, such a tax structure is contrary to social equality and justice. She said that although the government has a commitment to create 10 million new jobs in 18 months as per its election promise, there is no clear reflection of that in the proposed budget. The budget allocations for the four ministries—Labor, Expatriates' Welfare, Industry, and Commerce—have either decreased or remained stagnant. The CPD executive director said that without necessary reforms and a specific national employment program, the goal of creating massive employment risks remaining merely a political aspiration.
The CPD also questioned the government's target of bringing inflation down to 7.5 percent. According to the organization, the average inflation rate until May of the outgoing fiscal year was 8.63 percent. Without ensuring food and energy supply and prudent monetary policy, achieving this target will be difficult. Fahmida Khatun said that while the new government's goal of economic recovery is commendable, various macroeconomic indicators are overly optimistic. Although the increase in allocations for education and health sectors is positive, there are concerns about the effective implementation of these allocations.
Regarding revenue collection, the CPD noted that the government has set a revenue growth target of 18.2 percent, amounting to Tk 695,000 crore. However, based on data available up to March 2026, the CPD's own estimates suggest that actual revenue collection in the last fiscal year might be only around Tk 450,000 crore. This means that to achieve the target, the actual growth rate would need to be approximately 54.04 percent.
Regarding the Annual Development Program (ADP), the CPD said that an ADP allocation of Tk 300,000 crore (50 percent higher than the revised allocation of the previous fiscal year) demonstrates an ambitious fiscal stance. However, in the first 10 months of last year, only 35.04 percent of the ADP was spent, indicating low project implementation capacity.
On social protection, the allocation for the Social Safety Net Program (SSNP) in the current fiscal year has increased by 13.9 percent to Tk 144,000 crore. However, the CPD noted that pension management and agricultural subsidies together account for 43.2 percent of the total social security budget, which are not primarily targeted programs for the poor.
The CPD has termed the proposed budget for fiscal 2026-27 as ambitious. The organization has expressed doubts about the government's targets for growth, revenue collection, and public expenditure implementation.
Fahmida Khatun said that setting ambitious targets in the budget alone is not enough; long-term structural reforms, effective implementation, and building strong institutional capacity are necessary for economic recovery.
