The heatwave that hit Europe last week sparked widespread debate about air conditioning, or rather about the consequences of its absence. But with electricity grids deteriorating and increasing pressure on consumers in the continent's countries, can the cost of providing cool air be afforded? The answer is yes.
It is not hard to understand why there are doubts about the ability of energy systems to meet growing demand. As temperatures rise across the continent, electricity prices have also risen. Electricity infrastructure has suffered, especially in a country like Britain, where the grid operator requested additional supplies and paid a hefty price.
However, concern in this regard is often misunderstood: In the clean energy system that Europe is striving to build, air conditioning becomes necessary. It can be viewed from another angle: To transition from polluting cars that run on oil and gas boilers to electric cars and heat pumps, the continent needs to invest about $3.5 trillion in its electricity systems, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. A large portion of energy will be allocated to turbines, solar panels, and transmission capacity used only in winter, because shifting to electric heating means demand will peak at that time.
Looking at the United Kingdom, peak electricity demand in winter is expected to rise from a historical level of 60 gigawatts to over 100 gigawatts, according to a model by the Energy Transitions Commission. This energy must be provided at a time unfavorable for renewable sources: when sunlight is largely absent.
In summer, pressures will be much less. Certainly, peak demand is expected to be 40-50% lower compared to winter, especially with solar power generation at full capacity. Even with widespread use of air conditioners – which Aurora Energy expects to add 7-8 gigawatts to summer peak demand by 2035 – that will not require significant additional investment across the value chain.
While it is true that using air conditioners will increase household electricity consumption, it will not necessarily mean a significant increase in bills, because the cost of providing additional power in summer for electricity companies is usually minimal, so they may simply spread their capital costs over larger volumes.
There is a problem that cannot be ignored: While summer demand is still lower than winter in the UK – peaking at 35 gigawatts last week according to data from the Kraken Energy platform, compared to last winter's peak of 46 gigawatts – the energy system often experiences more outages in extreme cold or extreme heat.
Gas plants in the UK have reported numerous unplanned outages in the past few days. The cost of electricity imported from other European countries has also risen due to difficulties in cooling French nuclear reactors, forcing them to reduce their output.
Similarly, winds also calm, indicating that as dependence on renewable energy sources and weather variability increases, the energy system will need more flexibility. This is not an excessively demanding request.
Batteries already provided 1 gigawatt of peak power last week. Demand response programs have been activated, where consumers are paid to delay operating water heaters. Meanwhile, the UK energy regulator has initially approved 16 new long-duration electricity storage projects. Therefore, under these circumstances, there is a growing need for more wisdom and calm.
