A few hours after the departure of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres from Cyprus, attention now turns to the next steps and the conditions set for convening a new informal expanded conference on the Cyprus issue, with the participation of the leaders of Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, Britain, and the European Union as an observer.
At the center of the discussions are Guterres' references to the need for adequate preparation "regarding confidence-building, methodology, and content, taking into account the convergences already achieved." The two sides are trying to decipher exactly what the terms he used mean and what steps the UN expects before proceeding with the five-party meeting.
Call for CBMs
Although the President of the Republic of Cyprus, Nikos Christodoulides, hastened to state that the implementation of CBMs (Confidence Building Measures) is not a precondition for convening a five-party meeting, the United Nations wants to see progress, not necessarily full completion, on issues such as the opening of new crossing points, as a sign of political will. The Secretary-General has been exposed for years to the sides' inability to achieve any progress on crossing points.
The Turkish Cypriot side attributes the lack of progress on this issue to the precondition set by the Greek Cypriot side for the opening of the Kokkina crossing point, an area fully under Turkish military control, making it impossible to fulfill the request before a Cyprus solution or without Ankara's consent. Guterres' reference may also relate to the lack of progress on public utility projects, such as the creation of a solar park in the Buffer Zone. This was a proposal by Ursula von der Leyen submitted in July 2021, with the project assessment study sitting in the negotiators' drawers since 2024.
The "substance," the big question mark
For the UN Secretary-General, a prerequisite for holding a five-party conference is agreement on the methodology to be followed in such a conference. According to what the President of the Republic of Cyprus stated after the trilateral meeting with Antonio Guterres and Tufan Erhürman, the UN Secretary-General's reference to "methodology and substance" points to the preparation of a new negotiation process that will not start from scratch.
In terms of methodology, the goal is to reach an agreement on the starting point of the talks, utilizing the convergences and negotiating acquis that developed up to Crans-Montana, which, according to President Christodoulides, Guterres reaffirmed. The big question mark concerns the "substance" of the issue, while it was also not clarified whether the Secretary-General offered the sides a clear proposal or whether it is up to them to agree on the framework of the negotiation.
"We are not starting from scratch. There is a negotiating acquis," the Cypriot president noted. If Nikos Christodoulides' statement accurately reflects what was discussed behind closed doors at the UN office in the Nicosia buffer zone, it means that it was conveyed to the Cypriot sides that Turkey consents to the return of dialogue to find a solution based on the BBF (Bizonal Bicommunal Federation). However, this was not explicitly stated by the UN Secretary-General, who referred generally to the guarantor powers, contenting himself with saying that he received a green light for a five-party meeting.
Erdogan's Sibylline Statement
A statement by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after the conclusion of Guterres' visit rather complicated interpretations of Ankara's stance on the form of a Cyprus solution.
On one hand, the Turkish president noted that Turkey has always been a country that provided strong support to Mr. Guterres' peace efforts and supported him sincerely, and will continue to do so. At the same time, however, Recep Tayyip Erdogan argued that "no initiative that ignores the sovereign equality of Turkish Cypriots, their inherent rights, and legitimate interests in the Eastern Mediterranean can succeed," thus referencing Turkey's policy of a two-state solution in Cyprus.
