WEEKLY OUTLOOK 2: Experts remain cautious for the DAX
(Update: weekend events)
FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - After a sluggish week, the DAX is unlikely to make any significant upward moves in the coming days either. "There is currently a lack of upward momentum," says the weekly outlook from DZ Bank. Added to this is the seasonal summer weakness, and from the overheated US stock markets, "no impulses are to be expected in the short term."
Chief market analyst Andreas Lipkow of CMC Markets is also cautious: "Every negative piece of news is currently used as an opportunity for profit-taking, and that is a sign that the stock market could be heading for a consolidation," he commented on the recent weakness.
Investors got a first opportunity for this over the weekend. Nearly two weeks after signing a framework agreement, the conflict between the United States and Iran escalated again. US forces attacked Iranian targets in response to an attack on a cargo ship. Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) attacked targets in the US-allied Gulf states of Kuwait and Bahrain. In southern Lebanon, Israel shelled fighters of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia.
For the first half of 2026 coming to an end, the German leading index is showing a minimal gain. It has already moved a good distance away from the record high of 25,507 points reached in mid-January.
In contrast, the US indices have set a string of record highs even after the start of the Middle East war at the end of February and have performed significantly better so far this year. In particular, the technology exchange Nasdaq has benefited from the hype around Artificial Intelligence (AI) and has seen strong development. This is even more true for the technology-heavy leading indices in South Korea and Japan.
Despite their short-term skepticism and expectations of further fluctuations, the DZ experts believe the overarching upward trend of the DAX remains intact. They predict a price increase of ten percent for the stock market barometer by the end of December.
State bank Helaba, on the other hand, sticks to its forecast of 25,000 points, which would correspond to a one percent annual gain. Looking at the strongly performing semiconductor sector, they see the interim corrections in stock prices as a warning signal that confirms their caution regarding earnings prospects for the coming quarters.
The economic agenda holds some potentially market-moving news. The monthly US labor market report is likely to receive the most attention due to its great importance for American monetary policy. It is usually published on the first Friday of the following month. However, since the Independence Day holiday on July 4 falls on a Saturday this year, it will be observed on the Friday before, meaning US stock exchanges will remain closed. Therefore, the US government will release the report on Thursday.
Starting Tuesday, various purchasing managers' indices are due worldwide, which should provide insight into corporate expectations. On Wednesday, stricter EU rules for steel imports will come into force, aimed primarily at cheap Chinese competition.
Important corporate news is hardly in sight in Germany. The quarterly figures that US sporting goods giant Nike will release after the New York stock exchange closes on Tuesday could also move the stock prices of German competitors Adidas and Puma the following day.
--- By Gerold Löhle, dpa-AFX ---
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