Democrats are begging for more money ahead of November. But they’re torn over what to do with the limited funds they already have.
After months of downplaying their financial concerns, the four Democratic groups most responsible for delivering control of Congress are now issuing public pleas for more donations as Republicans swamp them on the airwaves. And party leaders are grappling with tough choices on which races to spend their limited dollars as campaigns clamor for backup.
“We need more cash” to expand the map, said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Executive Director Julie Merz.
Mike Smith, who leads House Majority PAC, warned if Democrats “can’t compete dollar-for-dollar in these closest races, they risk putting winnable seats out of reach.”
Devan Barber, who runs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, expressed excitement about “opportunities to expand the map further. But, “Additional investments require additional resources.”
Added Senate Majority PAC spokesperson Lauren French: “We want to win the majority, and that costs money.”
Republicans are poised to massively outspend Democrats on advertising: Since the start of August, they have placed $820 million in ad buys across the Senate map, compared to $556 million from Democrats, including future bookings through Election Day. That includes outspending Democrats in all but one of the nine most expensive Senate races, according to a POLITICO review of data from AdImpact, which tracks political advertising.
On the House side, the GOP has spent or booked $454 million across the map to $381 million for Democrats. That disparity grows even larger in the districts that were within 10 points at the presidential level in 2024.
House Democrats are currently planning to spend more in more heavily GOP districts than Republicans, as they hope to leverage voters’ frustration with the economy and the Trump administration to expand their map. But if they use their limited war chests and stretch too far into red territory, Democrats could end up losing must-win contests that they need for their House and Senate majorities.
It’s a dilemma that’s leaving Democrats at odds over which races to prioritize, according to interviews with more than a dozen party lawmakers, operatives and donor advisers.
“The problem you have here is there are just too many targets. What’s real and what’s fool’s gold?” said one Democratic operative working on multiple battleground House races, who, like others in this story, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about strategy. “Now that everybody’s got a good internal [poll] showing a deadlocked race, where do you go?”
A muddied Senate map
It’s not quite clear which states could net Democrats the four Senate seats they need to seize the upper chamber, complicating their spending debates.
Democrats need to hold Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire, and flip blue-leaning Maine and swing North Carolina. After that, it’s a question of which red states President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024 are the best investment to get at least two more seats amongst Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
Republicans are outspending Democrats in most major Senate races
Republicans are outspending Democrats in most major Senate races
Spending on TV and digital ads, including future buys, in Senate races since Aug. 1, by party of the candidate
[Chart explorer. Use arrow keys ↑ ↓ to navigate.]
Ohio $190M $120M Texas $106M $40M Michigan $91M $64M Maine $82M $57M North Carolina $76M $67M Iowa $74M $52M Georgia $48M $66M Alaska $42M $27M New Hampshire $42M $31M
Note: Spending includes past buys and current reservations from candidates, parties and outside groups.
Source:AdImpactJessica Piper/POLITICO
Texas is the big question: Republicans have outspent Democrats on the airwaves in the vast and expensive state by a roughly three-to-one margin since Aug. 1, even as Democrat James Talarico remains slightly ahead of GOP nominee Ken Paxton in most public polls. Neither the DSCC nor SMP have spent on TV ads there, though French said SMP is “taking a close look” at the race. But some Democratic senators are calling for more investment as donors like the progressive network Way to Win push money toward the state.
(The DSCC did include Texas as part of an earlier $40 million infrastructure spend across 10 states, though it’s unclear how much they’ve spent in the state.)
Polling that shows tighter than expected races in Kansas and even Mississippi has also piqued donors’ interest and drawn attention from some prominent Democrats.
Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said Wednesday that Democrats should “go big” in Texas and invest in Kansas, Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina.
“There’s real possibilities here of us kind of needing to really expand the map,” Gallego said. “I think a lot of states that are already competitive are well funded now, but we should try to kind of see how much further we can go.”
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His home-state colleague holds a similar view.“We actually have a chance in Kansas,” said Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who campaigned for Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton last month. “You got to take the shots you got.”
But that building interest in redder states has raised alarms among some senators and operatives who warn they need to keep the focus on defending seats that Democrats can’t flip the Senate without.
States like Texas and Kansas are “in play like they’ve never been before, so I don’t want to discount that,” said one Democratic senator. But when donors “go after the shiny object, that’s when it gets really dangerous.”
Michigan and New Hampshire Democrats are privately urging senators and donors to do more to boost Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire. Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who is holding a fundraiser for El-Sayed next week, told POLITICO that Democrats need “more help in Michigan.”
Some senators quietly suggested shifting resources away from two races that are looking increasingly good for Democrats, Georgia and North Carolina, to spend elsewhere. That’s even as some of North Carolina Democratic nominee Roy Cooper’s team publicly urges donors to “Keep Roy funded” as they privately fear the race in the purple state could tighten significantly.
“North Carolina is our best shot right now. We’ll see how that goes and hopefully that might be able to free up some resources that we can put to some of the other ones that are not quite in that situation,” said another Democratic senator. “We really want to shore up … New Hampshire and Michigan. I think those are ones that we can get into a better place.”
An aggressive bet on the House
Democrats are more confident about flipping the House, and in some ways are making a more aggressive bet than their Senate counterparts — putting more money into reach seats at the risk of underfunding their candidates in more traditional battlegrounds.
Since the start of August, Republicans are significantly outspending Democrats on the air in House races in districts that were within 10 points at the presidential level in 2024, according to a POLITICO analysis. They have a roughly $90 million spending advantage across those districts, including future ad buys — a roughly three-to-two edge.
Republicans are outspending Democrats in House districts with the narrowest presidential margins in 2024
Republicans are outspending Democrats in House districts with the narrowest presidential margins in 2024
Spending on TV and digital ads, including future buys, on House races since Aug. 1, by party of the candidate and House district's 2024 presidential election results
[Chart explorer. Use arrow keys ↑ ↓ to navigate.]
Trump won by...
10 or more points $128M $118M
5 to 10 points $108M $119M
Less than 5 points $115M $177M
Harris won by...
Less than 5 points $32M $47M
5 to 10 points $4M $2M
10 or more points $7M $413K
Note: Spending includes past buys and current reservations from candidates, parties and outside groups. Spending by or on behalf of independent candidates not included.
Source:AdImpact, The Downballot, POLITICO analysisJessica Piper/POLITICO
The disparity is particularly pronounced in a handful of purple districts. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) has $20 million spent and reserved for him since the start of August to just $3.8 million for his Democratic opponent, Cait Conley. Republicans have $16.4 million reserved and spent for Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.) over that period compared to $2.3 million for Democrat Rebecca Bennett.
But Democrats have the spending advantage in deeper-red House districts: The only category where they’ve got more money spent and reserved than Republicans is in districts Trump won by more than 10 points.
Both sides’ spending suggests they know the map runs into deep red territory: Twenty-five districts that Trump won by 10 or more points in 2024 are attracting spending from at least one of the major party-aligned outside groups. By contrast, only 15 districts that Kamala Harris won by any amount are getting money from them. Outside groups are also targeting 13 districts Trump won by between 5 and 10 points and 18 he won by less than 5 points.
Republicans argue they can negatively define Democrats and keep an advantage in these seats to keep the majority. “By the time [Democrats] find the cash, voters will already know exactly who they are,” Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for House Republicans’ campaign arm, said in a statement.
Democrats insist they don’t need to match Republicans dollar for dollar, arguing their message is more potent in an environment where everyday costs continue to climb.
But they’re also well aware they’re getting trounced across the traditional battlefield. One Democratic operative working on several battleground House races told POLITICO they’re particularly concerned about districts that aren’t in states with Senate races that attract more national attention and more resources along with it. The person specifically cited battleground races in Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Jersey, New York, Texas and California.
House and Senate Democratic leaders also put the squeeze on their members in separate closed-door caucus meetings last week to pay their dues and up their fundraising. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries pledged additional resources from his own coffers and pressed rank-and-file members to chip in as well, according to three people inside each meeting.
Brian Derrick, the CEO of the Democratic fundraising platform Oath, which directs donors to competitive races where Democrats need cash the most, issued a stark warning about the party’s prospects if more cash doesn’t come.
“In a cycle where Republicans have a historic amount of money to throw around, we know we’re going to lose races that we could have won had we funded them better,” he said.
Meredith Lee Hill and Erin Doherty contributed to this report.
