Voters favor Democrats by double digits in new midterm poll amid economic 'malaise'
by CORY SMITH | The National News Desk
Fri, June 12, 2026 at 5:03 PM
A Maine resident casts their ballot at a polling station during a primary election June 9, 2026, in Belfast, Maine. (Photo by CJ Gunther/Getty Images)
(TNND) — Seemingly driven by economic angst, voters are showing a preference for Democrats over Republicans for the upcoming midterm elections.
With the GOP in control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, and consumer sentiment in record-low territory, an Emerson College Polling national survey found voters favored a generic Democratic candidate by 10 points over a generic Republican candidate for the November midterms.
The poll, published Thursday, showed independent voters preferred a Democratic candidate by 15 points.
Democrats and Republicans were neck and neck last summer and fall in the Emerson College surveys. And Democrats held just a two-point advantage as recently as December.
But inflation brought on by higher gas prices, tied to the war in Iran that began in late February, seems to be taking its toll on Republican support.
Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said the public mood is marked by "malaise and dissatisfaction," and some swing voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2024 expecting a better economy with lower inflation are now experiencing "buyer's remorse."
"The one takeaway from those numbers are if they hold through November, there's no way, shape or form Republicans are retaining control of the U.S. House, and the only question is how large the Democratic majority will be," Jones said.
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History is already on the Democrats’ side, with the sitting president’s party losing seats in the House in eight of 10 midterm elections going back 40 years.
The economy remains the top issue for voters, the Emerson College Polling found.
And Trump’s approval rating sits at just 39% – only 29% among independents.
The survey also found that nearly 60% of Americans feel either pessimistic or uncertain about the future.
Consumer sentiment cratered to its lowest level on record last month. The first glance at June sentiment released Friday by the University of Michigan's nationwide survey showed a 9% improvement from May, but sentiment remains down 19% from a year ago.
Inflation climbed above 4% in May for the first time in three years.
Trump was asked this week by a reporter if he was concerned about inflation.
“I love it. The numbers were great,” Trump responded.
The president went on to explain that he expects inflation “to come down like a rock” as soon as the war is over.
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But Jones said Trump is losing credibility on his ability to resolve the war in Iran.
And he said the clock is ticking on Republicans’ ability to turn around the economic mood of the country before voters hit the polls in November.
“Republicans' best hope is to show we hit rock bottom in June and July, and that things are starting to get a little better as we approach November,” Jones said.
If that happens, Jones said there’s still time for the GOP to retain control of the Senate.
Even though Trump isn’t on the ballot for the midterms, voters' views of the president are likely to play a big role in the congressional outcomes.
SEE ALSO: Key midterm races: Why the Senate steals the spotlight this year
FILE - President Donald Trump speaks during an event in the Oval Office of the White House on June 3, 2026, in Washington. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
For Bush, oil price spikes had calmed long before the election, but the unemployment rate spiked to nearly 8% in the June before the ’92 election, and economic activity slowed a bit over the second and third quarters of that year.
Things got better in subsequent months, but it was too late for Bush, Brady said.
Today, the unemployment rate is a fairly low 4.3%, but prices are rising, and the economy grew at just a 1.6% clip in the first quarter, as of the most recent estimate.
And the Iran war isn’t resolved yet, so it’s unknown when the economic impacts will be either.
“Trump is probably in a more difficult spot than Bush given the war and the economy,” Brady said via email.
