Potential Diesel Export Ban Could Drive Up U.S. Gasoline Prices, Analysts Warn

Morgan Stanley analysts predict that a ban on diesel exports by the Trump Administration would lead to further increases in U.S. gasoline prices. They explain that such a ban would force U.S. refiners to reduce refinery utilization rates due to a lack of storage for diesel. This reduction in refinery activity would consequently decrease gasoline production, as both fuels are produced concurrently. As a result, U.S. gasoline prices, already at record highs for this time of year, would likely surge even higher. As of September 23, the national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.4744 per gallon, a significant increase from $4.10 a month prior and substantially higher than the $3.17 per gallon average from the previous year. Diesel prices have also seen a sharp rise, reaching $6.52 per gallon, compared to $3.69 in the same week of 2025. The White House has officially denied that a diesel export ban is being considered, despite earlier suggestions from President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. However, some Republican Senators, including Chuck Grassley of Iowa, have advocated for a ban, citing the impact of high diesel prices on American farmers and truckers. The U.S. energy and manufacturing industries have strongly opposed the idea of an export ban. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that banning diesel exports would not be an effective solution. A coalition of over 30 business, energy, and manufacturing groups sent a letter to President Trump urging him to reject fuel export restrictions, warning that such bans would result in reduced fuel production, tighter supplies, and increased costs for American consumers, farmers, and truckers.