The spot dollar opened the session this Monday (20) with slight fluctuations, trading between R$5.08 and R$5.11, on a day with an empty domestic economic agenda, with the Focus report as the main highlight. Investors continue to monitor the developments of the conflict between the United States and Iran and the trade negotiations between Brazil and the United States.
The Focus report showed few changes in market expectations. The median for the 2026 IPCA went from 5.16% to 5.15%, remaining above the inflation target ceiling. The estimate for the Selic rate at the end of 2026 was maintained at 14.00%, while the projection for GDP growth remained at 1.99%. At 11:40 am, the spot dollar was down 0.49%, quoted at R$5.0861, after a low of R$5.0822 (-0.56%) and a high of R$5.1152 (+0.07%).
Abroad, reports that Iran received proposals from mediators for the conflict with the United States partially reduced risk aversion, without eliminating uncertainties about the geopolitical scenario. After surpassing US$91 per barrel during the early hours, oil futures contracts lost strength and began to fluctuate near stability this morning, reflecting the expectation of a possible resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The DXY index, which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of six major currencies, was trading near stability.
Throughout the week, investors are also monitoring the participation of the Central Bank president, Gabriel Galípolo, at Expert XP 2026, in addition to the developments of trade negotiations between Brazil and the United States, given the possibility of an additional 12.5% tariff on Brazilian products.
On Friday, the 17th, the spot dollar closed the session up 0.24%, quoted at R$5.1112, after fluctuating between a low of R$5.1053 and a high of R$5.1334.
