The European Seasonal Forecast System 5 (SEAS5) forecasts above average precipitation across California for the month of January.
As El Niño breaks news records one week after the next, a new suite of data points to a wetter winter for the entire state of California, even wetter than previously thought.
New this week, two new runs of climate model products have been released, and both point to rain and snow on the way. The National Multimodel Ensemble (NMME), which we highlighted as one of the leading signs of a wet winter earlier this week, and the European Seasonal Forecasting System 5 (SEAS5), which has been shown to be more accurate than others across the western United States.
The sign is pretty unambiguous, rain is coming, and in some places quite a lot more.
Most of the state, and the vast majority of populated areas, looks primed for rainfall of at least 150% of normal throughout the winter months, with some areas likely receiving double their winter average along the coast, where El Niño is already expected to raise sea levels thanks to warmer ocean temperatures and an ongoing marine heat wave.
This isn’t just limited to Southern California either. The strongest rainfall signal extends from Sacramento and the Bay Area south to San Diego, with the larger above average signal extending statewide and into Nevada and southern Oregon.
Precipitation percent of normal Dec-Feb
Forecasted % of normal precipitation from October recent climate model products averaged across coming winter.
(SEAS5)
(NMME)
Chart explorer. Use arrow keys ↑ ↓ to navigate.
San Diego
234
173
Santa Barbara
216
177
Los Angeles
205
174
San Luis Obispo
203
178
Big Sur
203
178
Palm Springs
197
167
San Francisco
193
165
Santa Rosa
175
161
Bakersfield
172
169
Modesto
167
159
Stockton
166
157
Merced
162
159
Sacramento
159
152
Fresno
158
161
Eureka
155
142
Redding
153
140
Yosemite Valley
145
149
Mammoth Lakes
145
149
Crescent City
142
133
Lassen (Manzanita Lake)
139
138
Mount Shasta
139
131
Blue Canyon
138
140
Quincy
138
137
South Lake Tahoe
135
139
Donner Summit
135
138
Source:ECMWF SEAS5, NOAA CPC NMME, vs NOAA gridded normalsChart:Sean Macaday, Sacramento Bee
The numbers become even more stark when considering what “normal” is for any location. Consider, Sacramento typically sees about 11 inches of rain across December, January, and February. The data here point to this winter being 16–18 inches. San Francisco normally sees 15 inches and this winter would see 24–28 inches. Fresno is typically much drier at 5.5 inches, but here would close in at 9 inches. Farther south, Los Angeles and San Luis Obispo each see about 10 inches during any given winter. This data would about double that — 20 inches.
The most intense raw amounts look to be along the mountains of the north coast, where warm coastal water collides with steep terrain. Widespread winter totals over 30 inches are a decent bet here.
Of course, reality is never exactly like what a climate model describes. Climate models look at trends across the entire globe. Not on any given hour or day, but across weeks and months to pinpoint overall patterns. They do have real skill, and are not the same as the weather models on your phone that forecast rain.
This means the rain that falls won’t be nearly as smooth. Predicted rainfall will be irregular, characterized by heavy bursts alternating with dry periods rather than a steady, continuous drizzle. Showers and atmospheric rivers will band together to produce more moisture in some areas and less in others. This pattern is likely to be even more pronounced in rugged terrain, where some rain totals could verge on the extreme.
This is a steady increase in the numbers from early August, when rain was looking elevated statewide, but not to the degree predicted for some areas which could see more than double the typical winter rainfall.
Precipitation forecast Dec-Feb (SEAS5)
Approximate forecast precipitation (normalized as rain) vs normal winter precipitation.
Dec–Feb
total (in), SEAS5
Dec–Feb
normal (in)
Crescent City
Blue Canyon
Donner Summit
Eureka
Redding
Santa Rosa
Big Sur
Lassen (Manzanita Lake)
San Francisco
Santa Barbara
Quincy
Yosemite Valley
Mount Shasta
San Luis Obispo
Los Angeles
Sacramento
Stockton
San Diego
South Lake Tahoe
Mammoth Lakes
Modesto
Merced
Fresno
Bakersfield
Palm Springs
Source:ECMWF SEAS5 vs NOAA gridded normalsChart:Sean Macaday, The Sacramento Bee
Mountain snow also looking heavy, especially in January
Despite a warmer than expected winter from El Niño, snow will still fall at elevation.
Fitting the new European climate data to terrain, a clear picture emerges: a bit less snow in the foothills, but significantly more snow at elevation. This is especially true for the Klamath Mountains and the Sierra.
Just as with the rain, the snowfall will not be smooth. Expect this trend to be potentially greatly amplified along mountain peaks and ridges, even for portions of Southern California.
The strongest month for both rain and snow statewide is undoubtedly January.
El Niño still not slowing down, and may linger longer
The latest European climate data shows a troubling sign, El Niño could last longer than anticipated.
Earlier estimates put the peak of El Niño’s warmth in November, but a picture of a longer lasting event is emerging that shows the peak coming later in December, with irregular periods of warmth lingering into March and realistically into April and May. That is likely to stretch the wet pattern into the spring.
This El Niño is already the strongest and most east-based event of its kind on record at this point in the year, both factors are strong predictors for increased rainfall across California and the southeastern United States.
The next run of these climate products is not until November, at which point El Niño’s rains may already be starting to sneak into southern California.
This story was originally published October 8, 2026 at 9:00 AM with the headline "New data: Super El Niño to bring even more rain to California, how much could we get?."
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Sean Macaday covers the weather for McClatchy Media in California. Originally from Chicago, Sean worked 6 years covering the weather on local television in Minnesota. He holds a bachelor’s degree in meteorology and marine science from the University of Miami.
