Indonesia is bracing for a long, punishing dry stretch as its weather agency warns El Niño conditions could persist into early 2027, raising drought and wildfire risks across some of the nation’s most populous and fire-prone regions.
Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) says the impacts are already spreading, with dry conditions now affecting 54.5 percent of the country’s seasonal zones.
In a briefing in Jakarta on Thursday (July 30), BMKG chief Teuku Faisal Fathani said the drought is expected to peak between August and September, with the potential to intensify further later this year if another climate pattern develops over the Indian Ocean.
Multiple islands threatened
Across Indonesia, the early signs are visible on the ground, with photo story scenes capturing parched landscapes, strained water supplies, and smoke hazing the horizon in places already seeing fire activity.
BMKG says the threat is not limited to one island, with Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, and other major regions facing heightened drought stress as the pattern continues.
Shifting sea temps can make it worse
Fathani warned that conditions could worsen if a positive Indian Ocean Dipole forms later this year, a phenomenon linked to shifting sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean.
When a positive Indian Ocean Dipole overlaps with El Niño, rainfall is typically suppressed even more, deepening drought conditions across equatorial Southeast Asia.
Wildfire dangers building up
Hotspot monitoring suggests wildfire danger has built up faster through mid 2026 than in previous major El Niño cycles in 2015, 2019, and 2023.
West Kalimantan, South Papua, and Riau are currently recording the highest concentrations of hotspots, with localized haze already detected in parts of West Kalimantan.
Famous peatlands become flammable
Those early flare ups are especially concerning for Indonesia’s peatlands, which store huge amounts of carbon but can become highly flammable when drained or dried during extended dry spells.
Officials say the pace of environmental deterioration has drawn increasing attention, as the combination of heat, dryness, and ignition sources can quickly turn small fires into major incidents.
'Gozilla' El Nino
Beyond Indonesia, scientists have been warning of an unusually intense episode, with some describing the potential event as a “Godzilla” El Niño because of how disruptive it could be for weather patterns and ecosystems.
El Niño forms when atmospheric circulation responds to unusually warm sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, shifting storm tracks and altering rainfall, according to NASA.
El Niño can make it rain, or add extreme heat
Earlier this month, NASA said satellite data detected a massive wave of warm water stretching hundreds of miles in the Pacific near South America’s coast, signaling El Niño will “likely emerge later in the year.”
NASA notes that El Niño can bring torrential rain and snow in some places while driving extreme heat and aridity in others, and that each event varies even though it often peaks between November and January.
Other countries can be affected
In an NPR interview, NASA climate researcher Severine Fournier said Peru is typically ground zero for El Niño and warned the effects could reach from Southeast Asia to the Pacific Northwest, continuing through 2027.
"Recently, the westerly winds have picked up," Fournier told NPR. "That means that more warm water could be transported along the equator from the Western Pacific, piling even more on the coast of Peru, strengthening El Niño," he added.
Climate Change
Fournier also cautioned that climate change is “amplifying” El Niño’s impacts, saying the phenomenon will be “on steroids” this year regardless of whether records are broken.
In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has said El Niño is already forming, pointing to above average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
Very strong El Niño during Nov-Jan
"There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950," the NOAA said. "Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes."
The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization has also warned about the potential danger, predicting earlier this month there is a 90% chance El Niño will continue until at least November.
Threatened water supplies and harvests
The U.N. has cautioned that shifting rainfall tied to El Niño can bring drought to some regions and severe flooding to others, threatening water supplies, harvests, livestock, and food production across multiple continents.
Global temps rise
With global temperatures rising and the past 11 years recorded as the hottest in history, forecasters warn that warm oceans can load the dice toward more punishing extremes, leaving communities to cope with shortages, crop stress, and escalating fire risk.
