Europe's Hottest June on Record Traced to Climate Change
By Felicity Bradstock - Jul 05, 2026, 10:00 AM CDT
- A World Weather Attribution study found June's extreme heat across Western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” 50 years ago and was roughly 3.5°C cooler in 1976.
- The WHO reported nearly 1,300 excess deaths across Europe by June 21, including 1,000 in France alone.
- Researchers tied the heatwave's severity to shrinking Arctic sea ice, thinner winter snow cover, and cleaner air that lets more heat through.
Many countries across Europe have experienced the hottest June on record, as heatwaves sweep the region. Countries in Northern Europe that are not used to weeks of 30°C-plus heat are suffering due to a lack of air conditioning and buildings ill-prepared for such heat. Over 1,300 people died during the June heatwaves, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO), demonstrating the severity of the issue. Now, a recent study shows that climate change, as suspected, is to blame for the high temperatures.
Recent studies show that human-caused climate change contributed significantly to the extreme heat across Western Europe in June. Emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases have been driving up global temperatures for over a century, initially spurred by industrialisation. However, the rise in temperatures is occurring at a faster pace than in previous decades
A team of scientists affiliated with the organisation World Weather Attribution assessed decades of temperature records to better understand the patterns. It found that the extremely high temperatures across such a large part of Europe were unusual for June in today’s climate, with less than a 1 per cent chance of occurring in any given year. The new report has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, but it does offer some insight into the likely impact of climate change.
It found that the occurrence would have been rarer in the 2000s, when the world was approximately 0.61°C cooler than it is now. Meanwhile, the researchers found that the phenomenon would have been “virtually impossible” about 50 years ago, when the world was roughly 1.11°C cooler. When assessing the data, the scientists found that a European heatwave similar to that of recent weeks would have resulted in temperatures around 2°C cooler in the 2000s and 3.5°C cooler in 1976.
The lead author of the report and climate scientist at Imperial College London, Theodore Keeping, explained, “This event would not have been possible in June without climate change.” Keeping added that the frequency of similar heatwaves in the future depends on how much countries reduce emissions.
In June, the heatwave broke temperature records in various countries, from Spain to Germany. Temperatures rose to such heights due to the buildup of high pressure across Europe, known as a heat dome. This is a common occurrence during the European summertime, although the severity of the heatwave is not.
During the heatwave, several parks across Europe caught fire, trains and other forms of transport were unable to run, and electricity grids were under extreme pressure. Many schools and businesses were forced to close because of the high temperatures, and health warnings were issued across the region.
Germany, Hungary, and Austria all experienced record highs of 40°C or above, while the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Denmark edged towards 40°C. Temperatures in one part of Western France rose as high as 43.8°C. One of the factors that made the recent heatwave so intense was the high humidity across the region, with levels above 45 per cent in several countries.
Several factors are contributing to Europe becoming the fastest-warming region in the world. As Europe reduces its air pollution through stricter regulations on industrial emissions, fewer particles or aerosols remain in the air to bounce solar radiation back into space. The shift improves air quality and human health but can exacerbate the severity of a heatwave. In addition, less snow has been recorded during the winter months. This means that exposed soil absorbs more heat, whereas snow typically reflects it.
The melting of sea ice in the far-northern European Arctic has also left more of the ocean’s dark surface to absorb the sun’s energy. Changes on land and at sea affect how air moves over Europe and may be making scorching heatwaves more frequent.
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While many people in hotter parts of the world have dismissed Europe’s high temperatures, it is important to understand that most of Europe is ill-prepared for prolonged periods of temperatures above 30°C, coupled with high humidity. Most Northern European homes are not fitted with air conditioning and are generally built to keep heat in during the cold winter months.
The WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus explained, “Heatwaves pose serious health dangers, primarily by causing heat stress, which occurs when the body struggles to regulate its temperature. This can lead to dehydration, heat exhaustion, and, in severe cases, heatstroke, a medical emergency.”
During the June heatwave, France reported 1,000 excess deaths – the number above what would normally be expected. Almost 1,300 excess deaths were reported across Europe by 21st June, according to Ghebreyesus. While not all the excess deaths were directly related to the high temperatures, this highlights the risk of such a severe heatwave in Europe.
In response to the recent heatwave and the results of the study, the World Weather Attribution warned that “A rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical if we are to avoid even higher temperatures and their consequences in the future”.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
