Global Trade Despite Iran War: Exports Rise for Third Consecutive Month
Germany's exports increase again. However, economists see no reason to celebrate. The slight recovery remains fragile in their view.
09.06.2026, 12:00 Uhr
From dpa
Global trade: Despite Iran war: Exports rise for third consecutive month
German exporters are under pressure on world markets. (Archive image) Daniel Reinhardt/dpa
Despite the Iran war and oil price shocks, German exporters increased exports for the third consecutive month. In April, exports grew slightly by 0.9 percent compared to March, as the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden announced based on preliminary results. There was also a bright spot with a slight increase in production for industry. Nevertheless, economists dampen hopes of an economic recovery.
The value of exports amounted to 136.6 billion euros in April – an increase of 3.6 percent compared to the same month last year. The figures are adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects. Imports rose by 1.2 percent compared to March to 122.1 billion euros, which was 6.2 percent more than a year earlier. This resulted in a trade surplus of 14.5 billion euros, slightly less than in March.
US exports increase slightly, Europe strong
In April, the USA remained Germany's most important export market. After the dip in the previous month, exports to the United States increased again compared to March, rising by 1.8 percent to 11.4 billion euros. However, exports were almost 13 percent below the level of April 2025.
Exports to China also fell – their value dropped by 3.5 percent compared to March to 5.8 billion euros. German companies also delivered less to Great Britain, where exports shrank by 9.5 percent since March to 6.7 billion euros.
In contrast, European business proved to be a rock in the surf for the German export industry. Exports to EU countries increased by 1 percent compared to March to 79.1 billion euros.
Production grows slightly
The consequences of the Iran war with high energy prices are slowing the recovery of the German economy. The increased oil prices make goods transport more expensive for companies. Recently, the German Council of Economic Experts lowered their economic forecast for Germany. They now expect only mini-growth of 0.5 percent.
Some tailwind for the German economy comes from the manufacturing sector. In April, production in companies increased by 0.4 percent month-on-month – the first increase after four declines. While the construction sector grew, production was held back by weak development in the automotive industry. The production data gives some confidence, says Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank. "The increase raises hopes that the German gross domestic product will be spared a decline in the second quarter."
Iran war weakens German economy
A sword of Damocles for the German economy remains the development in the Iran war and new threatened US tariffs. "With every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the economic risks increase," warns Commerzbank chief economist Jörg Krämer. "The Middle East war is taking its toll on German industry" – this is evident from the fact that industrial production has been moving sideways at a low level for a year and a half. The decline in leading indicators such as the Ifo business climate suggests that industrial production is likely to fall in the coming months.
Dirk Jandura, President of the Foreign Trade Association BGA, emphasized that the European internal market was again "the most important stability anchor for the German export economy." However, he viewed the fact that imports are growing significantly faster than exports as a "warning signal." Foreign trade remains vulnerable, said the BGA president.
The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) is also skeptical. Although German exports increased slightly, it was only on paper, explained DIHK foreign trade chief Volker Treier. "The war-related increase in oil, gas and raw material costs inflates export and import prices. In real terms, exports are barely increasing." Production in the manufacturing sector is also not getting off the ground; "it is now at its lowest level in nine months," said Treier.
