Global Consumer Confidence Continues to Recover, but the U.S. and Energy-Importing Countries Show Weakness
According to a report by Aol.com, global consumer confidence has continued to rebound in the week ending May 25, 2026, marking the sixth consecutive week of growth since bottoming out in mid-April, indicating that global economic confidence is gradually emerging from the downturn. The four-week moving average of the global Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) rose 0.8 points to 95.6, steadily climbing from the low of 92.8 on April 19.
However, the recovery trend is not universal. Consumer confidence in some regions has shown mixed results, with the U.S. market in particular presenting a starkly different trend as consumers become increasingly pessimistic. Over the past month, South Korea's confidence index surged 14.8%, and Brazil rose 5.5%, leading the world. But the U.S. fell 2.8%, while India and Indonesia both dropped 2.6%.
Energy Markets and Geopolitics Cause Regional Disparities
The report points out that after the outbreak of the Iran war, energy markets became a key factor affecting consumer confidence, leading to significant divergence in South America. Previously, the confidence trends of the five major economies in the region were almost identical. But now, energy-exporting countries are benefiting from high oil prices and thriving, while energy-importing countries are under pressure from supply chain disruptions.
Brazil's four-week average jumped 2.1 points to 120.8, recording the largest single-week gain since the war began, mainly due to domestic energy production, high crude oil prices, a recovery in domestic manufacturing, and recent central bank interest rate cuts. Colombia's confidence index remained flat at 124.1, near historical highs. In contrast, Chile's confidence index fell 1.7 points to 80.9, 22.6 points below the pre-war baseline. Although Argentina rebounded 6.6 points in a single week, its four-week average trend remains negative at 82.8.
In North America, the U.S. four-week average fell 1.2 points to 86.7, out of sync with the global recovery trend. Canada rose slightly by 0.4 points to 75.8. The recovery in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa has been slow and uneven. Germany ended several weeks of decline, rising 1.2 points to 62.2, but still 17.8% lower than its January level. Spain and Italy rose slightly, while France was flat.
Notably, although the Middle East benefits from high oil prices, local conflicts have offset some of the gains. Saudi Arabia's confidence index fell to 151.6, and the United Arab Emirates also softened to 145.3. This confirms that regional military conflicts and global economic uncertainty have outweighed the positive impact of energy export earnings on confidence.
Asia-Pacific Region Performs Strongly, with China and South Korea Leading
The Asia-Pacific region showed the strongest data in this report. China's four-week average hit a new high of 166.6 points, rising 0.9 points in a single week. South Korea completed a V-shaped reversal, soaring 2.5 points to 97.5, now 8.9% higher than the January baseline and officially exceeding pre-war confidence levels. Japan and Australia also ended recent declines with slight increases. However, Southeast Asia generally declined, with Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia all falling 0.3 to 0.7 points, far below pre-war baselines.
