To anticipate a possible peace agreement in Ukraine, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky published a letter proposing a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, it may be useful to look at the Ukraine Ceasefire index developed by Goldman Sachs (GSXECEAS), which includes the 50 European companies most sensitive to a resolution of the conflict. A basket of stocks that includes companies specialized in (re)construction, some banks, airlines, and consumer goods companies. Interestingly, among the top 15 stocks by weight in the index, three Italian companies appear: Unicredit with 3.75%, Prysmian with 3.39%, and Buzzi with 2.71%.
The Goldman Sachs Ukraine Ceasefire Index
The top three groups are ArcelorMittal Sa (steel production giant based in Luxembourg), Heidelberg Materials (German construction group), and BASF (German chemical multinational, producing fertilizers and plastics).
In fourth place, with 5.16%, Siemens (energy, mobility, infrastructure), followed by ABB (electrification, industrial automation), then Air Liquide (industrial gas production). Holcim, instead (7th), operates in construction, Unicredit in eighth position is the first bank by weight in the index, followed by CRH (building materials).
In tenth place is Prysmian (power transmission and telecom cables), followed by Swedish Volvo (cars), Cie de Saint-Gobain (innovative sustainable construction materials), holding International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG, controlling British Airways, Iberia, Vueling, and Aer Lingus). Then Buzzi (construction) and Ryanair (airline).
Other banks included in the index are, for example, Austrian Raiffeisen, very present in Russia, and Erste Group based in Vienna. Heineken, instead, is a Dutch multinational producing and distributing beer.
Where the Goldman Sachs Ukraine Cease Fire index invests
| Code | Name | Weight in % |
|---|---|---|
| MT NA Equity | ArcelorMittal Sa | 6.16% |
| HEI GY Equity | Heidelberg Materials Ag | 6.03% |
| BAS GY Equity | Basf Se | 5.31% |
| SIE GY Equity | Siemens Ag | 5.17% |
| ABBN SE Equity | Abb Ltd | 4.88% |
| AI FP Equity | Air Liquide Sa | 4.31% |
| HOLN SE Equity | Holcim Ag | 4.07% |
| UCG IM Equity | UniCredit | 3.75% |
| CRH LN Equity | Crh Plc | 3.56% |
| PRY IM Equity | Prysmian | 3.4% |
| VOLVB SS Equity | Volvo Ab | 3.15% |
| SGO FP Equity | Cie de Saint-Gobain Sa | 3.14% |
| IAg LN Equity | Int. Consolidated Airlines Sa | 2.92% |
| BZU IM Equity | Buzzi | 2.71% |
| RYA ID Equity | Ryanair Plc | 2.66% |
| PKO PW Equity | Powszechna Kasa Oszczednosci Bank Polski | 2.6% |
| RBI AV Equity | Raiffeisen Bank Ag | 2.54% |
| EBS AV Equity | Erste Group Bank Ag | 2.36% |
| LHA GY Equity | Deutsche Lufthansa Ag | 2.34% |
| HEIA NA Equity | Heineken Nv | 2.26% |
| PEO PW Equity | Bank Polska Kasa Opieki Sa | 2.16% |
| ROCKB DC Equity | Rockwool a/s | 1.97% |
| UPM FH Equity | Upm-Kymmene Oyj | 1.58% |
| WCH GY Equity | Wacker Chemie Ag | 1.56% |
| AKZA NA Equity | Akzo Nobel NV | 1.35% |
| WIE AV Equity | Wienerberger Ag | 1.22% |
| CCH LN Equity | Coca-Cola Hbc Ag | 1.19% |
| LPP PW Equity | Lpp Sa | 1.14% |
| ALO FP Equity | Alstom Sa | 1.14% |
| LXS GY Equity | Lanxess Ag | 1.11% |
| STERV FH Equity | Stora Enso Oyj | 1.1% |
| WIZZ LN Equity | Wizz Air Holdings Plc | 1.02% |
| ALFA SS Equity | Alfa Laval AB | 0.91% |
| CCC PW Equity | Ccc Sa | 0.85% |
| EVK GY Equity | Evonik Industries Ag | 0.83% |
| WRT1V FH Equity | Wartsila Oyj Abp | 0.77% |
| AKE FP Equity | Arkema Sa | 0.71% |
| KGX GY Equity | Kion Group Ag | 0.7% |
| METSO FH Equity | Metso Oyj | 0.65% |
| SPL PW Equity | Santander Bank Polska Sa | 0.63% |
Cement
"Peace reduces uncertainty, not overturns it. And in this narrow space, potential beneficiaries move," notes Gabriel Debach, market analyst at eToro. Construction and European industrials would be the first to restart, "supported by the prospect of a massive Ukrainian reconstruction plan. Estimates speak of over 524 billion over the next decade, a sum that alone represents additional demand capable of reactivating supply chains and orders for infrastructure, engineering, and construction materials groups, both in Europe and Italy."
According to calculations by Egor Sonin, analyst at AlphaValue, reconstruction in Kiev will require 16 million tons of cement per year, and Irish materials producer CRH should capture 50% of domestic production. More cement than needed for reconstruction in Syria (9 million tons per year, with Turkish exporters, Heidelberg Materials, and Cementir favored to cover deficits) and Gaza: Egypt's $53 billion plan will require 12 million tons per year.
"CRH, Cementir, Heidelberg, and Vicat are the main beneficiaries of the reconstruction wave. In particular, CRH is a leader in North America, boasts strong cash generation and over 5 billion returned via buybacks and dividends. While Heidelberg Materials offers an interesting valuation at 6.5 times ev/ebitda 2025, below the peer average."
Energy
The second axis of reconstruction, Debach continues, concerns energy: "an agreement could bring back some flows to Europe, with a relieving effect on gas prices. The impact, however, would be contained. Benefits would be more marginal than transformative, with relief for energy-intensive sectors like chemicals, paper, and metals."
Emmanuel Cau, managing director and head of European equity strategy at Barclays, also sees secondary benefits if high energy prices in Europe were to decrease: "in our dedicated ceasefire and Ukraine reconstruction basket, the Italian stocks most exposed to this theme are Buzzi, Enel, and Unicredit. Our upgrade on utilities and energy, from underweight to market weight, further supports the MSCI Italy, as these sectors represent about a quarter of the index weight."
Consumer and Luxury
The third axis cited by Debach concerns consumer and luxury: "If the agreement also included the normalization of economic relations, European fashion could recover part of the demand lost from the Russian market, a channel that before the war represented a significant share for some groups. The same applies to the banking sector, which finds in the plan and the recovery of sentiment and the SME fabric new possible commercial levers."
Fabio Caldato, Portfolio Manager of the AcomeA Strategia Dinamica Globale fund, also focuses on the industrial sector, considering "interesting food and beverage, healthcare among big pharma, biotech and medtech, but also energy with oil stocks showing a solid trend despite oil languishing at multi-month lows." To these, the manager adds infrastructure and telecom sectors. At current prices, AcomeA likes Nestlé, Diageo, Siemens Healthineers, Anglo American, Cellnex, and Vonovia in Europe, and Diasorin, Inwit, Campari in Italy.
Who Loses?
Luigi De Bellis, head of the research team at Equita, therefore expects a rotation of portfolios towards industrial sectors and stocks linked to reconstruction, "a scenario that will be further supported by a context of lower tariff barriers and a more favorable exchange rate environment." In addition to financial groups with a presence in Central and Eastern Europe like Unicredit, which could see an improvement in country risk and credit demand, De Bellis cites Buzzi and Webuild among the beneficiaries.
Conversely, among sectors that could show volatility or underperform in the short term are Defense, utilities, and oil & gas, warns De Bellis. Defense is already experiencing a correction after the strong outperformance recorded since the beginning of the year. However, the United States is planning a further disengagement from Europe, forcing European countries to confirm, if not increase, military investments.
For this reason, explains the Equita expert, "after the recent de-rating, we see interesting stocks like Leonardo and Avio." Barclays' Cau agrees: "our broader European defense basket could suffer some correction, although the structural growth narrative remains largely intact. Leonardo is the only Italian stock present in this portfolio." Among Equita's preferred stocks are Tenaris and Eni. (all rights reserved)
