Republicans in Congress had hoped the major tax-and-spending-cut bill they muscled into law last year would redeem them on the campaign trail as they try to beat historical odds to keep their majorities in November's midterm elections.
But in an election that has increasingly become defined by the high cost of living, the benefits of the measure -- including sharply restricting federal income taxes on tips and overtime -- appear to be getting swamped by economic stress. That stress has been exacerbated by the war with Iran, as well as other moves Republicans have made that yanked government support that many Americans rely on. Among those was the GOP refusal to extend healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act that expired last year, causing dramatic premium spikes.
Outside the clubhouse at a golf resort nestled into the mountains framing Oro Valley, Ariz., Logan Bigelow corralled golf carts for players as he tallied how much he had benefited from the law enacted last year that limited taxes on tips.
Bigelow, 28, figured his tax refund had increased by $200 to $300, and some of his friends who work as bar backs at nightclubs in Tucson, pulling in as much as $700 in tips in a night, had noticed bigger boosts.
But none of it seemed like enough to make up for the other costs he and his friends were shouldering.
"I wish it helped out a little more than it did," Bigelow said in an interview. "The cost of gas -- it's getting outrageous. And how much healthcare premiums have gone up is out of control."
GOP leaders and vulnerable incumbents have promoted the bill as an answer to voter concerns about rising costs.
"We have more jobs coming home, more wages rising, more working families keeping more of what they earn, and that is our affordability agenda," Speaker Mike Johnson said last month during a campaign stop in a swing district in Arizona.
House Republicans' super political action committee began running television and digital ads behind the message almost immediately after the bill passed, and recently announced a more than $22 million campaign both promoting the tax cuts and attacking Democrats for opposing them.
In southeast Arizona, Rep. Juan Ciscomani, a two-term Republican, is leaning heavily on the tax cut measure as a selling point.
The legislation has become a central issue in the race. His Democratic challenger, JoAnna Mendoza, a retired Marine and former executive director of a group advocating a more progressive tax policy in the state, has hammered Ciscomani over the cuts to social safety net programs included in the bill. Ciscomani, in turn, has attacked Mendoza for opposing the tax cuts, as well as a slew of others considered in recent years by the state Legislature.
Darrell Hussman, president of the Tucson Police Officers Association, which has endorsed Ciscomani, said his members had benefited from the limiting of taxes on overtime included in the GOP legislation.
The Tucson Police Department is understaffed, Hussman said, and officers had been working so much overtime that the department recently imposed a cap requiring special permission to work more than 25 extra hours in a week. His officers reported seeing anywhere from $500 to a few thousand extra dollars on their tax refund.
"That, to me, is thrilling," he said. "We see there's a benefit, and with prices going up -- gas alone, you see the wear and tear. But now these officers are able to afford a little bit more for their family and themselves."
Yet in conversations with nearly two dozen tipped workers across the district -- bartenders and blackjack dealers at a casino, cart drivers at a golf club, and servers at sports bars, dive bars, a Waffle House and a fine-dining restaurant -- there was only muted enthusiasm for the "no tax on tips" provision.
Most said it had made a welcome but small difference, but became more impassioned when they began rattling off the increasingly unmanageable prices of gas and groceries. At least two tipped workers, including a blackjack dealer, said they had never heard of the tax cut.
Lisa Fitzgibbons, the mayor of Casa Grande, a desert city of about 60,000 south of Phoenix, said the benefits cuts in the legislation were starting to take effect at a time when her constituents were already financially struggling.
"There are certain pieces that are benefiting people, but then there's others that are really hurting people," Fitzgibbons said of the law. "People are struggling right now."
