High numbers of homes for sale and lacklustre sales volumes keep buyers in the driving seat through winter
Property / analysis
High numbers of homes for sale and lacklustre sales volumes keep buyers in the driving seat through winter
18th Aug 26, 10:49am byGreg Ninness
Image: Ross Payne.
The high level of unsold housing stock for sale is likely to continue weighing on the market as its heads into spring.
Stock for sale measures in July were all well up on July last year, while reported sales were down, meaning buyers continued to have the upper hand in mid-winter.
Property website Realestate.co.nz reported 33,252 residential properties for sale on its site at the end of July, not only up 9.3% compared to July last year, but also the most properties the website has had available for sale at the end of July since 2014. That puts stock levels at a 12-year high.
The overhang of unsold properties, the number of properties remaining unsold after being on the market for more than a month, was looking even worse.
Interest.co.nz estimates there was an overhang of about 25,500 residential properties at the end of July, up 12.6% compared to July last year, putting the overhang at its highest level since 2014.
However, sales were headed in the opposite direction.
The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand provisionally reported 6090 residential sales in July, down 3.6% compared to July last year.
While high stock levels and lacklustre sales volumes point to a market that's likely to remain subdued, a couple of figures suggest at least it may not be getting any worse.
The first is that new listings coming to market were almost flat compared to a year ago.
Realestate.co.nz received 7698 new residential listings in July, just 39 fewer properties (-0.5%) compared to July last year.
On top of that, the number of properties dropping out of the market was down significantly.
Dropouts are properties that have either been taken off the market completely, or are still technically for sale but are no longer being actively marketed.
Interest.co.nz estimates there were around 3100 residential dropouts in July this year, down 7.6% compared to July last year.
A flat number of new listings and fewer dropouts supports anecdotal evidence that vendors are starting to become more realistic in their price expectations, which, if the trend continues, could reduce the backlog of properties for sale over time.
However, all of the above figures relate to the market in mid-winter.
Whether the market continues to strongly favour buyers during the busier spring and summer months will likely depend on how many properties come to market and how realistic their vendors are in regards to price.
Realestate.co.nz interest.co.nz REINZ Housing market Residential properties for sale Real Estate housing inventory
9 Comments
by NZGecko | 18th Aug 26, 10:55am
This huge number of monthly dropouts and gigantic number of listings, will eventually move.....
As the NZ property market drops down, another -20%, over the next 2 to 3 years.
This crash will be the biggest in NZ and perhaps world history, for last 100 years.
NZ Winning gold again!
Up
4
by JimboJones | 18th Aug 26, 11:01am
"another -20%, over the next 2 to 3 years" - I actually agree that is possible.
My prediction has been flat prices for a while now (loss in real terms). But with interest rates heading up again, its like a kick in the guts to a flat-at-best market.
Up
3
by gibbonsj | 18th Aug 26, 11:55am
4% inflation at the moment, over 3 years is 12.5%. So it would only take a pretty minor drop in nominal values to get close to a 20% fall in real terms over 3 years. Easily possible. Consents have really started ticking up, and this low bottomed out higher than the early 2000's peak in building activity. New supply will continue to put downward pressure on prices. The market has structurally changed.
Kudos to those that paid down the minimums on their mortgage and put the rest into index funds. Or even better, stayed renting and did the same!
Up
4
by JimboJones | 18th Aug 26, 10:58am
That's one of many problems. Increasing interest rates, a dud economy, low net immigration, potential tax changes, more homes permitted by councils, boomers cashing up, ...
Up
1
by Averageman | 18th Aug 26, 11:11am
Speculords be happy. A tax free loss... is still tax free. Jokes.
Up
3
by MikeM7382 | 18th Aug 26, 11:46am
Nothing kills property values like cutting mass immigration.
Up
2
by interesting1234 | 18th Aug 26, 12:35pm
Nothing kills property values like people realising they don't need to buy a house, or not now given the current trajectory. More doing the maths and realising they are saving by renting and investing, then can buy back in later with a greater deposit that they didn't have to work for a percentage of due to net index gains, thus compounding their savings long term across the lifespan of the lower mortgage.
Up
2
by gibbonsj | 18th Aug 26, 1:15pm
I haven't seen any compelling paper or article that quantifies the additional housing demand of migration. Compared to domestic demand.
For instance; the aging population with more and more empty nesters rolling around in 4 bed houses, people having fewer kids, both adding to smaller average household sizes. Rising productivity and incomes of workers, although slower than elsewhere in the OECD, contributes significantly people want nicer newer bigger houses. Work from home meaning every office worker wants an additional bedroom for a dedicated home office.
The classic data point is the the inner suburbs of Auckland (Ponsonby, Herne bay) have fallen in population over recent census periods. Hardly some low cost area.
I would guess that immigration makes up a small amount of housing demand. Don't have the tools to study it unfortunately.
Read less
Up
0
by NZGecko | 18th Aug 26, 1:07pm
In this housing market, for the years ahead, the best time to SELL, IS YESTERDAY.
NEXT BEST, IS TODAY!
All mortgage rates are about to bolt much higher! The cost of debt is going to be painfully high for years.
Take note, the two hasbeen high priests and accomplices of pushing the NZ property Ponzi to its heights.....and now crashing: Ashley C and Tony Zanders!
Up
3
