The latest developments threaten the reopening of the Yemeni front within the framework of the campaign Iran is waging against the US. The blockade of the Red Sea and attacks on Saudi tankers are no longer a local conflict. The Yemeni Houthis, a militant group backed by Tehran, have struck again—this time targeting Saudi oil facilities—escalating on a newly opened front in the war between Iran and America.
On Saturday, the Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi oil facilities, the first such strikes since 2022, writes the Washington Post. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sari said the group launched ballistic missiles and drones at facilities owned by the state-owned company Aramco, in the cities of Yanbu and Jazan on the Red Sea coast, through which nearly 15% of global maritime trade passes.
The Red Sea has become one of the main routes for Saudi oil exports after the war in Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Since the closure of Hormuz, Riyadh has redirected more than 70% of its crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Subsequently, Saudi Arabia began using a 1,200 km long pipeline connecting Abqaiq in the east with Yanbu, carrying 4.5 million barrels of oil per day. However, the Houthis—who control large parts of Yemen and the capital Sanaa—have disrupted maritime traffic across the Red Sea from Yanbu to East Asia by imposing their naval blockade. The embargo has effectively closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which about 12% of global trade passes, including a quarter of global container traffic.
The Houthis said they would only stop ships linked to Saudi Arabia or those entering or leaving Saudi Red Sea ports. But during a similar blockade against Israel over the Gaza war, they attacked many vessels unrelated to that conflict, so many tankers are already changing course near Yemen due to the Houthi blockade.
Why did the Houthis attack?
Hussein Albuhaiti, a Yemeni political commentator who supports the Houthis, told the Washington Post that the attacks have less to do with the war in Iran and more with long-standing disputes with Saudi Arabia. He warned that the Houthis will further escalate the conflict if the US responds to the attacks.
"They will establish a blockade of American commercial ships or warships," he said.
US President Donald Trump said last Tuesday that the US would "sort things out" in the Red Sea if the Houthis imposed a blockade on maritime traffic and energy exports from Saudi Arabia.
A Houthi spokesman said Saturday's Houthi attack was a response to Saudi strikes on the Yemeni city of Hodeidah on Friday. According to Haaretz, the port of Hodeidah is the group's main import hub and a source of revenue of several hundred million dollars annually. Saudi-led forces said they targeted Houthi military positions in the city that pose a threat to maritime traffic in the Red Sea. Last week, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi threatened to target Saudi oil facilities if Riyadh becomes involved in a broader regional war.
Meanwhile, the group released a video on Sunday allegedly showing the downing of a Saudi drone over Yemen, amid tensions between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia:
Houthi rebels claim to have shot down Saudi drone over Yemen
Saudi authorities have not yet confirmed the attacks, but civil defense forces issued a warning on Saturday morning for residents in both cities to take cover.
"Do not leave your home or building until the danger passes," stated a message posted on social media.
"Conflict threatens to escalate into a geopolitical crisis"
According to the Washington Post, it is not yet clear how extensive the damage is or how it will affect oil production. NASA's fire monitoring platform, FIRMS, recorded several thermal anomalies at the Jazan refinery, a plant that can process up to 400,000 barrels of oil per day.
And when Saudi oil exports are blocked, oil prices on the global market rise sharply, and the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could quickly escalate into a geopolitical crisis affecting military decisions regarding Iran, writes Haaretz in its analysis.
The newspaper points out that the latest developments threaten the reopening of the Yemeni front within the framework of the campaign Iran is waging against the US through its Arab neighbors, with the Bab el-Mandeb Strait emerging as a complement to the blockade Iran imposed in the Strait of Hormuz, and thus to the global supply of oil and gas.
What will Iran do?
Yemeni analyst Hussam Radman indicated that Iran refrained from activating the Houthi front during the 12-day war with Israel last June, but political changes in Iran since February—especially the killings of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Larijani, and other senior officials—have created a new balance of power in which the position of the new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, remains unclear.
Yemeni analysts believe the Houthi leadership is now seeking a new financial agreement with Saudi Arabia that would provide significant funds, ease restrictions on Sanaa airport, and give them a share of revenues from oil fields under the control of the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
Saudi Arabia, which has so far refrained from attacking the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah, has simultaneously encouraged Jordan to resume flights between Amman and Sanaa, indicating that Riyadh is more inclined toward a financial deal than a broader regional conflict, writes Haaretz. Regardless of whether the escalation in the Red Sea was coordinated by Iran or reflects a local conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea has emerged as a new and extremely important battlefield that could significantly affect both Trump's decisions and the further course of the war.
