Hurricane Isaias has knocked 1.28 million barrels per day of U.S. Gulf oil production offline, up from just 185,120 bpd two days ago as operators clear personnel from the storm’s path.
The Marine Minerals Administration said Thursday that 62.89% of current Gulf oil production and 57.35% of natural gas production had been shut in based on operator reports submitted by 11 a.m. CDT.
Operators evacuated personnel from 121 production platforms, or 32.61% of the Gulf’s 371 manned platforms. Five non-dynamically positioned rigs were evacuated, and four of the Gulf’s 17 dynamically positioned rigs moved off location.
The pace of the shutdown has accelerated quickly. On Tuesday, no production platforms or rigs had been evacuated, and just 9.24% of Gulf oil output and 3.36% of gas production was offline. At that point, the MMA survey reflected only one company’s report. Thursday’s survey included 12 companies.
Isaias strengthened into the Atlantic season’s first hurricane Wednesday night and was still gaining strength Thursday afternoon as it moved toward the northern Gulf Coast. Forecasts had the storm approaching Category 3 strength before weakening ahead of an expected early Saturday landfall.
The current track puts parts of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama at risk for storm surge of up to 7 feet and heavy rainfall, with some locations potentially receiving 10 inches or more.
Oil markets were already reacting before the latest shut-in figures landed. WTI jumped roughly $4 per barrel Thursday morning and Brent gained nearly $5 after explosions were reported in Riyadh, adding another supply risk to an already tight market.
The Gulf shutdown now removes more than 1.2 million bpd from U.S. production until offshore facilities can be inspected and restarted.
MMA said undamaged facilities will return to service once standard checks are completed. Any platform or infrastructure damage would keep some of that production offline longer.
The agency plans another evacuation and shut-in update Friday afternoon.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
