IAEA Triples Nuclear Power Forecast as Small Reactors Finally Take Off
By Haley Zaremba - Sep 19, 2026, 12:00 PM CDT
- The IAEA now projects SMRs will supply up to 28 percent of new nuclear capacity by 2060, a sharp jump from its prior high-case estimate of 24 percent.
- The NRC just fast-tracked construction on two SMRs at Michigan's Palisades Energy Center, clearing the plant to break ground before a full work authorization is issued.
- Surging AI data center power demand is pushing the tech sector to back SMRs as a scalable, low-emissions alternative to the natural gas boom currently fueling AI growth.
After years of delays and plateaued development timelines, it might finally be time for the small nuclear revolution. In a brand new report, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has once again increased its long-term nuclear power forecast, projecting that the world’s nuclear power generation capacity will fully triple by 2060. The Agency expects a whole lot of that increased capacity to come from a strong wave of small modular nuclear reactors connecting to power grids around the world, at long last.
For years, small modular reactors (SMRs) have been touted as a game-changer for clean energy, with the potential to offer round-the-clock, emissions-free electricity at a fraction of the up-front cost of traditional nuclear power plants. Typically, nuclear power plants are huge, bespoke operations with enormous up-front costs and long timelines for approval, construction, and connection. By contrast, SMRs would be factory-made and mass-produced to the same specifications, and then set up on-site. A bigger site would use more of them, and a smaller one would use less. Simple as that.
But these visions have been slow to materialize thanks to regulatory hurdles, funding gaps, and nuclear fuel supply chain issues, among other snags. The primary issue is that while these models are cheaper than traditional nuclear energy, that doesn’t mean that they’re cheap. While the nascent technology will likely continue to get cheaper over time, it is not yet genuinely competitive with other clean alternatives like large-scale hydropower and offshore wind projects.
“A key argument from SMR proponents is that the new reactors will be economically competitive,” says David Schlissel, IEEFA director of resource planning analysis. “But the on-the-ground experience with the initial SMRs that have been built or that are currently under construction shows that this simply is not true.”
While many of the world’s biggest economies – including The United States, the United Kingdom, China, and Russia – have all been investing heavily in the development of SMRs, Russia and China remain the only two nations in the world to have operational, grid connected models. The United States has approved a single patent for an SMR design, with an expected commercial deployment date slated for 2028.
But it would seem that the long slog toward commercial reality is finally picking up speed. The IAEA’s high growth scenario anticipates that 28 percent of all new nuclear capacity added by 2060 will come from SMRs. In the lowest nuclear power growth case, SMRs represent 23 percent of new capacity. In either case, their role is considerable, and both of these numbers represent a huge uptick in confidence compared to the Agency's previous projections, in which SMRs represented 24 percent of new capacity in the high case and just 5 percent in the low case.
The IAEA report also includes a regional breakdown of where they expect to see this development occur by 2060. The Agency anticipates “particularly strong uptake in North America where about 60% of new nuclear capacity could come from SMRs.” Strong regional growth is also expected in South-Eastern Asia and in Latin America and the Caribbean, at 40 percent each in both high and low growth scenarios.
The wheels are already turning in the United States, where just this week the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission a pproved a fast-tracked plan for the construction of two planned SMRs at the Palisades Energy Center in Michigan. The plant will be allowed to break ground on the project early, before a Limited Work Authorization is issued. Together, the two will produce a projected 680 megawatts of electricity.
In the United States and beyond, the SMR revolution is increasingly seen as a vital piece of the artificial intelligence energy puzzle. With a single hyperscale AI data center able to consume as much electricity as 50,000 homes, scalable, baseload, and low-emissions energy capacity additions are needed as quickly as possible. At present, the AI boom is leading to a massive natural gas boom, but the tech sector is also throwing money behind next-gen technologies like SMRs to more sustainably power its insatiable energy needs in the future. In that sense, the future can’t come fast enough.
By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com
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Haley Zaremba
Haley Zaremba is an energy journalist and researcher with more than a decade of professional experience covering global energy systems, land and natural resources, and…
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