Unfortunately, the negotiations of the Imjin War (called Bunroku-Keicho War in Japan) are repeating themselves. It is estimated that we will have to fight fiercely again.
Based on my blog post from last month, the US will have to launch large-scale strikes on Iran, and negotiations will be fruitless.
Why? Because Iran is currently leaderless, with multiple centers of power coexisting, none able to convince the others.
Some might ask, why does the US prefer dealing with dictators? Simply because a dictator's word is law; once you handle the dictator, you handle the country.
This time, Israel killed Iran's dictator, the one whose word was law. Now, Iran's civilian government, grounded in reality, has no choice but to negotiate with the US, while the Revolutionary Guards want revenge, and the Iranian military, caught in between, sits on the sidelines. This situation renders any negotiation between the US and the Iranian civilian government meaningless. Even if an agreement is reached, other power centers in Iran, especially the Revolutionary Guards, will not accept it.
The current situation is: the US believes Iran will soon sign an American-style agreement; the Iranian hardliners think the US will soon be unable to hold on; the realists (aka rationalists) think we should agree to everything for now, and once both sides cease hostilities and lift the blockade, everything can be planned long-term.
Thus, this is very similar to the negotiation process of the Imjin War (called Bunroku-Keicho War in Japanese history). Let me briefly describe it.
The Imjin War roughly went through two stages: Japan's Bunroku campaign and, after about a year and a half, the Keicho campaign. Why was there a break? Because both Ming China and Japan realized the war had reached a stalemate, with huge costs, and both wanted to end it. Look familiar to the current Gulf situation?
The Ming side sent Shen Weijing as a negotiator, and the Japanese side was mainly represented by Konishi Yukinaga. Shen Weijing was a merchant who had once lived in Japan, a smooth talker and liar. Konishi, as everyone knows, was the commander of the Japanese First Army, a famous general. At the time, Konishi was also tired of the war and felt it was pointless to continue. The two got together and decided to create two separate ceasefire agreements: one for the Wanli Emperor in Beijing, and one for the monkey Hideyoshi. The one for Wanli was very respectful, saying the Taiko of Japan recognized the might of the Ming and was willing to submit to the Ming, as long as the Taiko could continue to rule Japan. The one for Hideyoshi said the Ming greatly respected Hideyoshi and would make him King of Japan, with Korea split in half, the south to Japan, and the Korean prince sent to Japan as a hostage.
These two completely different agreements were sent back to Beijing and Osaka, making both sides very happy. The Wanli Emperor thought, "The Japanese king has submitted! Let's give him a way out." Besides, the war was already bankrupting the Ming. Hideyoshi thought, "Well, the Wanli Emperor seems decent; most of my conditions have been met. Let's go with this for now, and later we'll plan to conquer the Ming."
Thus, both sides thought they had won. Wanli greatly rewarded Shen Weijing, and Hideyoshi praised Konishi. Konishi even thought he could start packing to return to Japan.
This was not a win-win! Nor was it "winning twice" as some national strategist would say. Both high commands were simply deceived.
However, the Wanli Emperor was a serious man. He thought, since the Japanese monkey king has submitted, our Celestial Dynasty should send envoys to confer titles to make it complete. So he sent several court ministers to Japan to confer titles on Hideyoshi. Hideyoshi thought, "Wow, you're so polite, I must entertain you!" So he held a banquet for the Ming envoys. After the meal, the Ming envoy produced an imperial edict and asked Hideyoshi to kneel. Hideyoshi was puzzled: since the Ming recognizes me as King of Japan, I am equal to Wanli; why should I kneel to listen to the Ming envoy's reading? But out of curiosity, he knelt casually (after all, Japanese eat kneeling). The Ming envoy read the edict, saying Japan has recognized the might of the Ming and finally chosen to submit, which is wise! But Japan must reflect on the mistake of starting the war and write a self-criticism; then it's over. The Ming is a great power and will not pursue the matter.
Hideyoshi heard this and thought, "What?! What is this 'nani'?! Baka yarou!" He immediately became furious, snatched the edict from the Ming envoy, and tore it to pieces. The Ming envoy was terrified, thinking this monkey was too rude. Hideyoshi drove the Ming envoys away, then prepared for war again, leading to the later Keicho campaign. This war continued until Hideyoshi died of illness.
It was a good opportunity to end the war, but a big liar and a war-weary general messed it up into this state. Later, both sides experienced several years of bloody trench warfare, sieges, and countless deaths before real peace came.
History is a mirror. What happens today has more or less happened in history. So reading more history is not useless.
The US-Iran negotiations this time will likely be futile. Even if an agreement is reached, it will not be recognized by different factions within Iran. In the end, we will have to fight fiercely, beating Iran until it begs for mercy. That is the inevitable conclusion I predicted from the start.
