We’re running out of time for a literal October surprise before the midterm elections – a sudden event, disclosure or crisis with the potential to change the outcome. Just nine days separate us from November. Tick-tock.
There have always been late-breaking developments in U.S. politics. My favorite (because it actually affected the outcome) dates to 1888, when Republicans published a letter in which the British ambassador said Democrat Grover Cleveland was London’s preferred presidential candidate. Voters with anti-British feelings rallied behind Republican Benjamin Harrison, who won.
But we owe the “October surprise” expression to the presidential race of 1980, when William Casey, Ronald Reagan’s campaign manager, used the term to describe President Jimmy Carter potentially announcing an Iran hostage deal to sway voters in the final weeks of the race.
Since then, politics reporters and campaign strategists have obsessed about the potential for an unforeseen event – or a well-timed disclosure – to disrupt an election in the final stretch. The late-breaking revelation in 2000 that George W. Bush had been arrested for driving under the influence, for instance. Or the release of hacked Democratic emails by WikiLeaks in 2016.
Here are a few things to watch this time around:
Could the Surprise Be Ukraine?
In 2023 and 2024, candidate Donald Trump promised scores of times that he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking the oath – or even before taking office. The war has raged on.
In the last month or so, we’ve seen three major developments:
- Trump has gone back to being sharply critical of Ukraine and broadly forgiving of Russia, which started the war. "Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine," Trump told reporters on Monday. "They haven't been doing much."
- The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Elon Musk himself ordered the slowdown of a military-grade version of Starlink, which made some of Ukraine’s weapons and defenses “virtually useless.”
- The Kremlin has announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to resume U.S.-mediated peace talks with Ukraine.
But Ukraine as an October surprise gets a “meh” from me. The talks aren’t slated to start until after the elections. And merely announcing the possibility that they will resume is not tectonic enough to shift the national conversation here.
What About an AI-Related Incident?
We’ve seen the debate about artificial intelligence play a role in the midterms already via data centers, but what about a single AI-related event?
On Thursday, Axios reported that major American banks have detected AI agents “operating inside customer accounts, with some agents attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions.”
That by itself probably won’t move a lot of voters. But what if we see an AI run on a major bank? Or an AI sell-off on Wall Street? This would be the technological version of a natural disaster and would qualify as an October surprise.
Could the Surprise Be the Paris Riots?
Trump and other high-profile Republicans have seized on the widespread images of looting and violence in France over the weekend and warned U.S. voters that similar unrest awaits America if the GOP loses the midterm elections.
“If you want to see what is at stake in this election, just look at what's happening in France,” Trump said at a rally in Kansas. “When you see burning steeples and raging fires in France, just remember that is what the radical Democrats wanna do to America.”
In the last week or so, several Trump voters with whom I correspond have volunteered that the violence has made them more sensitive to Trump’s argument that Western civilization is at stake in two weeks. But could it really change the trajectory of the election?
Could It Be an Iran War Flare-Up?
It’s always a little hard to know what’s going on with the conflict Trump started with Iran in February. We have seen cycles of diplomacy, regular bursts of American airstrikes and spotty Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
A lasting peace deal hardly seems imminent. But there’s always the opposite: a resumption of major military operations or a successful Iranian strike on a tanker transiting Hormuz, which could send shockwaves through global oil markets. Americans could see higher prices at the pump.
This is highly speculative, but it could qualify as an October surprise.
But whether it’s Ukraine, AI, Paris or Iran – all of which are serious matters – none of these looks big enough to break through and fundamentally redefine a political contest squarely focused on cost-of-living issues.
In other words: It’ll take more to surprise us.
