The Iran war might have done exactly what President Trump was trying to avoid: turning the world away from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources, because of the wide range of vulnerabilities it has exposed in the international energy system. Restrictions on trade through the Strait of Hormuz have underscored just how dependent many countries are on this waterway for fossil fuel imports, prompting governments to seek alternative suppliers and accelerate the deployment of renewable energy sources.
The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is normally used to transport around one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas, following the U.S.-Israeli-led attack on Iran in February, led countries to scramble to cut oil and gas use and find alternative supplies. In addition, it has led many to turn to renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power. It has also, less positively, led to a slight rise in coal use in some countries.
According to an analysis by the NGO Carbon Brief, the impact of the war in Iran on the world’s energy is expected to lead to a 0.5 per cent reduction in fossil fuel emissions in 2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that peak oil consumption may also happen this year, rather than in 2029 as previously forecast.
This led California governor Gavin Newsom to name President Trump as the “greatest gift” to the environmental movement due to the knock-on effects of the war in Iran. Newsom told reporters during Climate Week in New York, “He’s woken the world up to how vulnerable we are to petro-dictatorships, how vulnerable we are to disruptions in the Middle East.” He added, “This war has completely gutted any sort of romantic notions of energy security, and it’s compelled folks to think differently. It’s accelerating investments and clean energy and renewables.”
President Trump’s policy changes in the United States, such as cuts to renewable energy funding, the watering down of air pollution regulations, and support for data centres, will almost certainly increase domestic carbon emissions. This means that the idea of him being an “accidental environmentalist” is almost certainly overstated. However, on an international scale, several governments have been encouraged to diversify their energy mix by accelerating the deployment of clean energy and battery storage capacity, thereby driving down emissions.
It is worth noting that if all the oil and gas exports restricted by the Strait of Hormuz were available elsewhere, governments would likely be less eager to diversify their energy mix. However, the vulnerabilities exposed in international fossil fuel trade have made diversification key to ensuring energy security. In addition, the impetus to develop renewable energy sources following the Covid-19 pandemic has shown that rapid capacity expansion is possible with enough funding and policy support.
Investment in renewable energy has risen sharply over the last decade, to around double that of fossil fuels. Almost all new power being added to the grid is produced by clean energy sources, while around one in four cars sold in 2025 was electric.
The vulnerabilities exposed go far beyond transport and electricity, with it quickly becoming apparent just how much the world depends on fossil fuels for fertilisers, petroproducts, and a wide range of goods. Delphine Lévi Alvarès, global petrochemicals campaign manager at the Centre for International Environmental Law, stressed, “We cannot continue relying on fossil fuels neither for energy nor for material.” Alvarès added, “We cannot continue relying on fossil fuels for absolutely everything around us.”
Over 30 governments have now enacted policies to transition away from fossil fuels or improve energy efficiency in response to the ongoing Middle East conflict, according to an IEA tracker. However, climate experts suggest more must be done to make a meaningful impact on global climate efforts, particularly following the United Nations’ recent acknowledgment that the world will miss the climate pledges set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Pauline Heinrichs, a lecturer of war studies at King’s College London, told AP News that “Governments are currently doing a dance between acknowledging the importance of clean power while continuing to support fossil fuel expansion.” Heinrichs added, “We are seeing an old and a new world interact in contradiction with each other.” Meanwhile, Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson emphasised that “We need that action over years, to decades, to make a dent in the climate problem.”
Achieving long-term change will require governments to introduce policies and incentives to support clean energy development, encourage electric vehicle uptake, and drive greater energy efficiency, according to researchers at the Climate TRACE emissions database.
The ongoing war in Iran has exposed widespread vulnerabilities in global energy trade, underscoring the need for greater diversification in energy and supply chains. Restrictions on global oil and gas trade have encouraged governments to seek alternative suppliers and invest in domestic energy diversification. However, a structural change is required, such as the introduction of new policies and incentives, to drive long-term climate change.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
