Extreme heat and 'super tropical' nights. A flare-up in Italy with the second heatwave and temperatures of exceptional magnitude. Caused by an imposing mass of subtropical air rising from Algeria, which has expanded northwards incredibly reaching as far as Denmark: this is the African Anticyclone 'Cerberus'. These are the weather forecasts from experts for today, Saturday, June 20, and for the days to come.
Record heat and super tropical nights, what the expert says
Lorenzo Tedici, meteorologist and media manager at iLMeteo.it, identifies two main factors that make this subtropical wave a cause for strong concern.
The first critical element is dictated by the calendar. The heat will be exacerbated by the maximum length of the day: on Sunday, June 21, coinciding with the Solstice, sunshine will reach its peak with 15 hours and 41 minutes of light in Milan and 15 hours and 13 minutes in Rome. This will result in a prolonged accumulation of daytime heat and extremely short nights, which will not allow our bodies the physiological time to recover the energy 'burned' during the day.
The second reason for alarm is the exceptional persistence of this atmospheric pattern. Normally an African flare-up subsides within 6-8 days, but the oppressive dome of Cerberus risks lingering over the Mediterranean basin for a full two weeks, prolonging discomfort until the beginning of July.
Thermal projections outline a veritable heat map. In the central hours, thermometers will soar to extreme peaks of 38-39°C in cities like Benevento, Bologna, Cremona, Florence, Grosseto, Mantua, Modena, Parma, Prato, Reggio Emilia, and Terni. Milan will not be spared either, reaching 37°C on the very day of the Solstice.
But the real suffering will be felt after sunset. We will enter the exhausting regime of 'super tropical' nights, characterized by minimum temperatures that will not drop below the critical threshold of 25°C. The area where sleep will be worst is the Po Valley: exceptional overnight lows of 27°C in Milan, 26°C in Cremona, Mantua, Monza, and Verona, and 25°C in Bologna.
Analyzing the European synoptic situation for the next ten days, the picture appears completely blocked. A vast and unyielding North African high-pressure system will encompass the entire central-southern chessboard, extending from Algeria to Spain, France, England, and Denmark. Only Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia, and Ukraine will enjoy a cooler climate in line with averages.
When can we hope for a real change? To see the anticyclonic fortress of Cerberus crumble, mathematical models are beginning to hypothesize, on a very long-term basis and as a possibility still to be confirmed, the descent of a deep cyclone from Ireland. This providential atmospheric reversal would have the merit of sweeping away the stagnant and boiling calm, but to hope for its arrival we will have to grit our teeth at least until early July.
Detailed Forecast
Saturday 20. North: sun and heat, but with some thunderstorms in the Alps. Center: sunny, heat further increasing. South: sun, heat.
Sunday 21. North: sun and heat, heat thunderstorms in the mountains. Center: sun, heat, some thunderstorms on the hills. South: sun, increasing heat.
Monday 22. North: sun and heat, thunderstorms in the mountains. Center: sun, heat further increasing. South: sun, heat further increasing.
Trend: Subtropical high pressure Cerberus ongoing with highs up to 39-40°C and super tropical nights; strong physiological discomfort due to heat and humidity.
