Two key federal departments have not modelled the impact of Australia's rapidly expanding data centre industry on agricultural land, water use or food production, despite the Albanese government last week moving to impose new national requirements on the industry.
The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry referred questions from this masthead about the potential effect of data centre development on prime land, water availability and food production to state governments and local councils, saying that the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences had nothing relevant to offer.
The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) pointed to detailed forecasting of the sector's future electricity requirements, but was unable to point to modelling about what those needs could mean for agricultural land, water resources or food production.
Placed alongside each other, the statements show the government is well-advanced in tracking the link between AI and power usage, but point to a gap with no comparable, independently verifiable baseline measurements available for environmental impacts.
The Department of Employment and Workplace Relations has also published analysis of AI's impact on the labour market to provide public confidence in the new rules being proposed for data centres.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that a new national framework would require operators of large data centres to cover the cost of connecting to the grid, improve water efficiency and, significantly for the regions, supply new generation capacity to support their facilities.
The Energy and Climate Ministerial Council has already agreed that a condition of approval is that data centre owners must build generation in the same state in which they operate, meaning additional solar arrays, substations, wind turbines and transmission lines will be bolted on to the existing renewable rollout.
In Victoria alone, 30 proposed projects could collectively require about nine gigawatts of electricity, the equivalent of four Loy Yang A power stations, while associated water demand could increase by the equivalent of an additional 330,000 residents by 2030.
The situation has prompted Victorian Farmers Federation president Ryan Milgate to call for a dedicated agricultural land-use assessment to be incorporated into planning approvals for major projects and for a dedicated independent office to be established to oversee the process.
"The government departments are working in silos. They're not working together, and no one fully understands the total impact of this industry," he said.
"We need to understand what is happening. What is the water use? What is the impact on agricultural land? What does the footprint look like?
"It needs to be part of the planning process to look at the impacts on agriculture and model it over time to understand the long-term repercussions of these decisions."
The absence of modelling comes despite an ongoing senate inquiry into the expansion of data centres and years of engagement between governments and the data centre industry as demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure accelerates and increased warnings from energy planners about the sector's growing electricity requirements.
The Australian Energy Market Operator has projected data centre demand could roughly triple by 2030 and account for almost 10 per cent of national electricity consumption by 2050.
TransGrid, which manages the high-voltage network across NSW and the ACT, recently advised developers that transmission capacity in Western Sydney would be largely exhausted beyond 2033, directing attention towards regions including the Hunter and Riverina.
Analysis by Digital Agricultural Services has estimated that about $21 billion worth of farmland across NSW and Victoria lies within areas considered favourable for future data centre development.
With no federal assessment of the industry's agricultural footprint readily available, the task of calculating the cost of the AI boom falls largely to state governments and local councils.
However, in announcing the new standards, Mr Albanese argued that national rules were needed precisely because planning, water and energy powers are split and overlapping across every level of government.
A DCCEEW spokesperson said the new siting, energy and water obligations are designed to "ensure all levels of government are working to the same outcome".
He added that State, Territory and Commonwealth Energy Ministers will meet later this month to agree on regulatory implementation pathways of data centre expectations "relating to energy, to mandate that data centres fully offset their energy use, work to strengthen the grid and don't impose extra costs on households".
"We will continue to work closely with stakeholders, including AEMO, to ensure our electricity and emission modelling reflects the most accurate forecasts of future data centre demand," he said.
Mr Milgate said the federal government must lead the assessment work rather than relying on industry or local communities to identify the long-term implications for agricultural communities.
"There's been no community input so far. It's government waiting for private industry to come up with the answers for them, when they should be leading the charge," he said.
"The raw data will be there but not aggregated in a form that is useful, obviously no one's actually thought to pull it together in a meaningful way.
"You set precedents by letting things happen and we're just being too reactive. It is like we have let someone build a road and you can drive on it, but haven't set a speed limit on it and don't understand what's a good speed and what is safe."
Legislation is scheduled to be introduced early next year.
Business Council of Australia chief executive Bran Black said most Australians would judge AI on whether it improves lives.
"Every major technological advancement has created uncertainty before creating prosperity. And so Australians deserve confidence that AI will be introduced safely and transparently," he said.
