Across Europe, the middle class has been shrinking, but the figures tell different stories.
Eurofound data covering 2007 to 2022 shows that the middle class contracted in almost two-thirds of EU member states. But a fall in the size of the middle class does not always mean that people are becoming poorer.
In some countries, people leaving the middle class moved into higher-income groups. In others, they moved into low-income groups.
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That difference is central to this ranking. The WorldRankd Composite Index uses Eurofound’s EU-SILC data and defines the middle class as households earning between 75% and 200% of national median income. The ranking considers the size of the decline, the direction of movement, inequality, cost pressure and recent economic pressures.
1. Malta
Malta ranks first, even though it did not record the largest decline.
Its middle class fell by 4.1 percentage points between 2007 and 2022. But the direction of that movement sets Malta apart.
The data shows that people leaving the middle class moved almost entirely into the low-income group. At the same time, Malta recorded one of the largest increases in inequality in the EU.
About 65% of the population belonged to the middle class in 2007. The combination of a shrinking middle class, downward movement and rising inequality gives Malta a WorldRankd score of 81.35.
The figures show why the size of the decline alone does not tell the whole story. Sweden lost 6.7 points, the most among the seven, but much of that movement was towards higher income. Malta lost 4.1 points, yet most of those leaving the middle moved down.
The ranking therefore separates two different experiences: a middle class shrinking because people are moving up, and a middle class shrinking because people are moving down.
For Malta and Bulgaria, the data points towards the second situation.
2. Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s middle class declined by 4.6 percentage points between 2007 and 2022.
The country began from a lower position than most of the others. Its middle class now represents about 51% of the population, the smallest share in the EU.
Most people leaving the middle class moved into the low-income group. Bulgaria also had the highest Gini coefficient in the EU, and inequality increased during the period.
The country also faced pressure from energy and food inflation after 2022. Bulgaria ranks second with a WorldRankd score of 80.62.
3. Sweden
Sweden recorded the largest middle-class decline in the EU among the countries examined, losing 6.7 percentage points between 2007 and 2022.
The middle class represented about 73% of the population in 2007. Sweden also recorded the largest increase in inequality among EU countries during the period.
But there is another side to the figures. About seven in ten people who left Sweden’s middle class moved into the high-income group.
That means the decline reflects a movement towards both higher incomes and greater inequality rather than a broad movement into poverty.
Sweden ranks third with a WorldRankd score of 75.34.
4. Luxembourg
Luxembourg lost 4.6 percentage points of its middle class between 2007 and 2022, tying Bulgaria for the second-largest decline among the seven countries.
The result is notable because Luxembourg has one of the highest GDP per capita levels in the world.
The data shows that people leaving the middle class moved almost entirely into the low-income group. Housing costs are a major factor, with property and rent costs placing pressure on households around the median income.
Luxembourg’s middle class represented about 67% of the population in 2007. It ranks fourth with a score of 74.37.
5. Lithuania
Lithuania’s middle class fell by 3.3 percentage points between 2007 and 2022.
Around 57% of its population was in the middle class in 2007, below the EU average of 64%. About two-thirds of those leaving the middle moved into the low-income group.
Inequality also increased during the period. Lithuania entered the period with one of the highest Gini coefficients in the EU, and the figure rose further.
The country also faced pressure from the post-2022 inflation and energy crisis. Lithuania ranks fifth with a WorldRankd score of 69.11.
6. Czechia
Czechia recorded the smallest middle-class decline among the seven countries, at 2.7 percentage points.
About 73% of its population belonged to the middle class in 2007, putting it among the countries with the largest middle classes in the EU.
The concern is where people went after leaving the middle. The data shows that the movement was almost entirely towards the low-income group. Inequality remained broadly unchanged.
Czechia receives a WorldRankd score of 64.35 and ranks sixth.
7. Netherlands
The Netherlands recorded a 3.7 percentage point decline in its middle class between 2007 and 2022.
At first glance, that places the country among those experiencing a contraction. But the direction of movement changes the picture.
Most people who left the Dutch middle class moved into the high-income group rather than the low-income group. The country’s Gini coefficient also fell during the period.
The middle class accounted for about 69% of the population in 2007. The Netherlands therefore ranks seventh, with a WorldRankd score of 49.84. Housing costs remain a source of pressure, particularly in the Randstad.
