From the Strait of Hormuz crisis to the Red Sea crisis, the Middle East situation is becoming increasingly "chaotic".
On July 20, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces announced a blockade of Saudi commercial shipping in the Red Sea, forcing Saudi Arabia to announce the formation of an international coalition to deal with "maritime threats." After the "urgent" situation in the Red Sea's Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a drone attack on the Egyptian Mediterranean port of Damietta on July 29 also made the northern entrance of the Suez Canal "feel a threat."
Just as the world was focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, Ukrainian drones attacked an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea on July 25, and the two countries narrowly avoided conflict recently.
"All seas - the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Caspian Sea - have become arenas for oil wars," said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and an energy expert.
In addition, several analysts pointed out that the conflicts in the two "battlefields" of Iran and Ukraine are intensifying and spreading, and there is a trend of mutual "integration." The "flames of war" have already drawn some countries that "attempt to remain neutral" into the conflict. Now, the question facing governments around the world is: When will the next outbreak point occur? Will these two battlefields "merge" into a super-large conflict?
Red Sea in Crisis
Two Major Global Energy Chokepoints Under "Blockade"
According to CCTV News on August 5, sources revealed that Iran and Oman may reach an agreement on the passage arrangements for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, but this does not mean that the strait will be immediately reopened. The Strait of Hormuz is the only maritime passage from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. However, the US-Iran conflict has led to restricted transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, known as the "global throat," and the strategic alternative status of the Red Sea has become increasingly prominent.
However, the Houthi armed forces recently suddenly announced a "ban" on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea waters, adding new variables to the Middle East situation. Some analysts believe that the Red Sea may have become the "second front" of US-Iran confrontation.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Yahya Sarea, a spokesman for the Yemeni Houthi armed forces, issued a statement on the 5th saying that the Houthi armed forces attacked a Saudi oil tanker with multiple ballistic missiles that day. This is the eighth Saudi oil tanker claimed to have been attacked by the Houthi armed forces since the blockade began on July 22. On the morning of August 4, local time, a civilian cargo ship flying the Indian flag was attacked while sailing in the Red Sea, and the ship subsequently sank completely.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is an important waterway connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, leading to the Indian Ocean. Together with the Strait of Hormuz, it handles about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, making its strategic position extremely high. Affected by the Middle East situation, the traffic volume of the two major straits has dropped sharply, causing another violent fluctuation in the global energy market. This is also the first time in recorded history that the two major Middle East oil chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have been in a state of "actual closure" simultaneously.
According to Xinhua News Agency on August 1, Saudi Arabia has invited representatives from dozens of countries and international organizations to discuss the initiative to establish a multinational maritime defense coalition to jointly respond to "maritime threats" in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden.
To prevent further escalation of the conflict, Saudi Arabia also conducted secret contacts with the Houthi armed forces through Omani mediators this week. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is also preparing military contingency plans in case the negotiations ultimately break down.
A Century of Relative Peace Ends:
The Caspian Sea Becomes an "Intertwined Point" of Two Conflicts
Meanwhile, due to Ukraine hitting an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea, the two countries narrowly avoided conflict recently. Iran pointed out that the ship was carrying civilian goods and condemned the attack as an "act of aggression." After the attack, Iran considered retaliatory action, but with the efforts of "diplomatic calls" from all parties, the crisis was temporarily calmed.
▲Screenshot of relevant CCTV reports
The Caspian Sea is located at the junction of Asia and Europe and is the world's largest lake, as well as an important trade channel for the five coastal countries of Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan.
Due to its location deep in the Eurasian continent, this body of water has long been regarded as a "safe haven" far from global wars and maritime disputes. In the past century, there have been no large-scale military conflicts here. However, with the outbreak and intertwining of two fierce conflicts in the heart of Eurasia, the century-long period of relative peace has clearly ended.
Since December 2025, Ukraine has repeatedly attacked oil and gas drilling rigs in the Caspian Sea belonging to Russian oil companies. However, Ukraine is not the only country to attack the Caspian Sea waters. In March 2026, Israel struck the Iranian Caspian Sea naval fleet for the first time.
▲On July 28, 2026, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu (left) met with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Washington
Some analysts point out that due to its key location on the important trade routes of Russia and Iran, the situation in the Caspian Sea is rapidly becoming extremely dangerous, and may even further disrupt international trade and regional stability. It is evident that "closely linking" the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US-Iran conflict is the "strategic intention" of Ukrainian President Zelensky.
"Ukraine's attack on Iranian ships in the Caspian Sea should be a cause for deep concern for US policymakers," said Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at the American Defense Priorities Institute. "Zelensky understands that the only way (Ukraine) can win is to scale up and drag the United States and Europe more directly into the conflict."
Kavanagh pointed out that the attack on Iranian ships and Zelensky's repeated claims that "Russia and Iran are sharing intelligence" are clear evidence that he is trying to link the two conflicts. "If he is part of the US war against Iran, he wants the US to do the same in Ukraine."
Black Sea, Baltic Sea, Mediterranean Sea Not Spared
Iran and Ukraine Battlefields May Be "Connecting"
In addition to the Caspian Sea, on the morning of August 1, local time, the container ship "Yanina" of Russia's Far Eastern Shipping Company (Fesco) was hit and sank in the Black Sea by Ukrainian forces. The ship had a deadweight tonnage of over 100,000 tons. In the past July, Ukraine continued to attack Russian energy infrastructure and Black Sea shipping vessels. Previously, two major Russian oil loading ports in the Baltic Sea, Primorsk and Ust-Luga, were also attacked by Ukrainian drones.
On July 29, an unidentified drone attacked a liquefied natural gas tanker at the Egyptian Mediterranean port of Damietta, marking the first time Egypt has been targeted during the new round of US-Iran conflict, threatening the status of the Suez Canal as a safe route for oil exports from the Red Sea.
Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at global macro research firm Alpine Macro, pointed out that since February, the flames of war have spread to almost all countries in the region. "Egypt is the largest country that has not been affected, and it has been trying to maintain this state, maintaining open relations with both Washington and Tehran. But "neutrality" has not spared it."
▲Screenshot of relevant CCTV reports
Alamariu warned: "The Iranian and Ukrainian battlefields may be 'connecting.' A few days after Ukraine's attack in the Caspian Sea, there was an explosion of a gas tanker in the Mediterranean. This may not be a coincidence, and there is a risk of convergence between the two conflicts."
Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and an energy expert, also pointed out, "Think about all the seas - the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Caspian Sea - they have all become arenas for oil wars."
The latest analysis suggests that Ukraine's attack on Iranian ships is not so much the beginning of the convergence of the two conflicts, but rather "another important node in the evolution of a cross-regional escalation model."
In response, former US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper publicly stated that "the war with Iran should be internationalized" and that US allies in Asia and Europe, as well as Iran's neighbors such as Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, should be "brought in."
▲Photo of former US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper
"We must globalize this conflict because it is affecting international trade," Esper said. "We are bearing too much ourselves, or to some extent Israel is bearing it. Therefore, I think it is time to globalize it."
"In fact, the two conflicts, Ukraine and Iran, have been intertwined since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022," said Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington.
Source: Red Star News Reporter Xu Huan, comprehensive Xinhua News Agency, CCTV News
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