Morgan Stanley has issued a major warning about the risk of a stock market crash within the next 30 days. However, based on recent weekend developments, the market may not have to wait that long, with Monday potentially being the first test.
Mike Wilson, the bank's chief U.S. equity strategist, is not concerned about artificial intelligence (AI). His primary focus is on oil prices.
What is Wilson Really Warning About?
Wilson told Bloomberg that rising energy costs could drain liquidity from the market. U.S. benchmark crude oil prices remain above $100, up nearly 80% this year.
U.S. WTI crude oil spot price. Source: TradingView
"I think in the next 30 days, if oil prices go to $120, $130, or $140, that will drain liquidity from the market," he emphasized.
Wilson commented that market liquidity is currently sufficient but not abundant.
He is not advising clients to sell stocks. Instead, Morgan Stanley is shifting towards companies that generate their own cash flow, rather than reducing equity exposure in portfolios.
Is Coinbase a Safe Haven for Investors?
Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Coinbase (COIN) on September 10, 2021, marking the first time the bank has rated the exchange since its IPO in 2021. While only issuing a "neutral" rating, the price target was set at $250, implying an increase of nearly 43% from its current price of $175.26.
Coinbase (COIN) stock performance. Source: TradingView
The bank views Coinbase as operating more like a "financial operating system" rather than a bet on the crypto market.
MORGAN STANLEY INITIATES COVERAGE ON COINBASE $COIN WITH A $250 PRICE TARGET, IMPLYING ~43% UPSIDE AS PLATFORM EXPANDS BEYOND CRYPTO pic.twitter.com/zM0jQ2XRC1
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) September 12, 2026
Bitcoin spot trading now accounts for just over 10% of Coinbase's revenue, a significant drop from over half when it first went public, according to comments from CFO Alesia Haas this week.
However, this scenario has not yet experienced a sell-off in risk assets. That could happen on Monday, following several significant weekend events.
Weekend Events the Market Hasn't Reacted To Yet
Despite this, the market may not have much time to prepare, as a notable "shock" emerged after Friday's trading session: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei proposed slowing down the development of AI models, a sentiment echoed by both Sam Altman of OpenAI and Elon Musk.
"Monday could be a bloody day in the stock market. However, that could be temporary until the messaging and vision around artificial superintelligence become clearer," commented entrepreneur Patrick Bet-David.
This perspective suggests that AI is propping up stock indices. However, data indicates that if there is an impact, it is concentrated in technology stocks.
AI STOCKS FACE PRESSURE AS TECH LEADERS CALL FOR SLOWDOWNAI-linked stocks could face near-term selling pressure after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for slowing development of the most advanced AI models, with OpenAI’s Sam Altman and xAI’s Elon Musk backing the proposal.…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 13, 2026
The standard S&P 500 (SPX) index is market-cap weighted, meaning large AI companies have a significant impact on the overall index. However, the SPXEW (equal-weight) version, which gives equal weighting to all stocks, would more accurately reflect the average market movement. These two indices have moved almost in tandem since the beginning of 2026, both increasing by about 13%. If AI were truly driving the market, a significant divergence between the two indices would typically be expected. However, this has not been observed this year.
SPXEW vs SPX performance in 2026. Source: TradingView
BeInCrypto also noted in July that the worst S&P 500 stocks of 2026 lost over 40% of their value, but AI's influence only partially explains this decline.
Although Morgan Stanley's 30-day clock is still ticking, the risk of a sell-off in risk assets could still emerge as early as this Monday's trading session.
