Does Your State Trade More With China or the EU?
Key Takeaways
- All but five U.S. states traded more with the European Union than China in 2025.
- China accounted for 13% of California’s goods trade, the highest share among the five China-oriented states.
- Alaska, Illinois, Oregon, and Wyoming shifted to trading more with the EU than China in 2025.
China and the European Union are two of America’s biggest trading partners, but their influence looks very different from state to state.
This U.S. map highlights which states trade more with China versus the European Union, using 2025 data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only goods trade is included; trade in services is excluded.
A Trade War on Two Fronts
Within months of the start of President Donald Trump’s second term, the U.S. announced sweeping tariffs on dozens of economies, including major trading partners such as China and the EU.
The U.S. initially announced a 34% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods in April 2025, which was later raised above 100% amid retaliatory measures before being reduced. Against that backdrop, U.S.-China trade fell 29% from the previous year.
The table below lists U.S. states based on whether they traded more with China or the EU in 2025.
| State | Trades More With (2025) | EU-to-China Ratio |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 🇪🇺 EU | 2.6 |
| Alaska | 🇪🇺 EU | 1.6 |
| Arizona | 🇪🇺 EU | 3.0 |
| Arkansas | 🇪🇺 EU | 3.1 |
| California | 🇨🇳 China | 0.8 |
| Colorado | 🇪🇺 EU | 2.5 |
| Connecticut | 🇪🇺 EU | 6.0 |
| Delaware | 🇪🇺 EU | 3.2 |
| D.C. | 🇪🇺 EU | 27.2 |
| Florida | 🇪🇺 EU | 3.6 |
| Georgia | 🇪🇺 EU | 2.6 |
| Hawaii | 🇪🇺 EU | 1.5 |
| Idaho | 🇪🇺 EU | 2.1 |
| Illinois | 🇪🇺 EU | 1.6 |
| Indiana | 🇪🇺 EU | 8.6 |
Four states shifted to trading more with the EU than China in 2025: Alaska, Illinois, Oregon, and Wyoming. They joined 41 other states and Washington, D.C., in the EU-oriented group.
With Illinois switching sides, every state east of the Mississippi River now trades more with the EU than with China.
How EU Trade Gained Ground
The EU was also subject to the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, initially facing a 20% reciprocal tariff. Following negotiations between the U.S. and European Commission, the two sides announced a trade deal in July 2025 that capped most U.S. tariffs on EU goods at 15%.
Over the full year, U.S.-China goods trade declined by more than a quarter, while total EU-U.S. trade increased from 2024.
The states trading the most with the EU were Texas ($114 billion), Indiana ($110 billion), and California ($67 billion). Indiana stands out in particular, with the EU accounting for about half of its goods trade, supported by the state’s large pharmaceutical industry and companies such as Eli Lilly.
The Five States Still Oriented Toward China
Only California, Nevada, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Washington traded more with China than with the European Union in 2025.
California led by a wide margin, recording more than $86 billion in two-way goods trade with China.
The five states have distinct industries that help explain their trade ties with China. These include California’s port-driven electronics imports, aerospace exports from Washington, and semiconductor production in New Mexico.
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To see how transatlantic trade ties are expanding, check out Revitalized U.S. Role in EU Trade since the Mid-2010s on Voronoi.
Ranked: The Fastest-Growing Major Economies in 2026
While Europe’s major economies struggle with stagnation, Asian emerging markets are forecasted to see 5% growth in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- India (6.4%) and Indonesia (5.0%) have the highest growth projections for 2026 among major economies.
- The U.S. growth forecast of 2.3% is ahead of most other developed G20 economies.
- Europe’s largest economies are expected to record relatively sluggish growth in 2026.
Despite geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions, the global economy is forecast to grow by 3% in 2026. Among major economies, however, growth rates vary considerably.
This visualization ranks Group of 20 (G20) members by their projected real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026, using the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook. Real GDP growth adjusts for inflation, providing a clearer measure of changes in economic output.
The African Union, a G20 member since 2023, has been excluded because the political union does not have a single economy or common market.
Asia’s Emerging Market Champions
Asia dominates the top of the ranking. India, the world’s most populous country, leads with projected growth of 6.4%, followed by Indonesia at 5.0% and China at 4.6%.
These strong growth forecasts help explain how India is projected to rise from the world’s sixth-largest economy in 2026 to the third-largest by 2031. Jamie Dimon, head of the world’s largest bank, has also predicted that the Indian economy could triple in size over the next decade.
The table below ranks G20 members by their forecast real GDP growth rate in 2026.
| Rank | G20 Economy | 2026 Real GDP Growth Forecast (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇮🇳 India | 6.4 |
| 2 | 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 5.0 |
| 3 | 🇨🇳 China | 4.6 |
| 4 | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 3.5 |
| 5 | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | 2.9 |
| 6 | 🇰🇷 South Korea | 2.6 |
| 7 | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 2.4 |
| 8 | 🇺🇸 United States | 2.3 |
| 9 | 🇦🇺 Australia | 1.9 |
| 10 | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 1.7 |
| 11 | 🇲🇽 Mexico | 1.2 |
| 12 | 🇪🇺 European Union | 1.2 |
| 13 | 🇨🇦 Canada | 1.1 |
| 14 | 🇷🇺 Russia | 1.1 |
| 15 | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 1.1 |
| 16 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 1.0 |
| 17 | 🇩🇪 Germany | 0.7 |
| 18 | 🇫🇷 France | 0.6 |
| 19 | 🇯🇵 Japan | 0.6 |
| 20 | 🇮🇹 Italy | 0.5 |
| -- | 🌐 World Average | 3.0 |
India’s economic growth has been supported by strong public investment alongside steady consumer spending. Indonesia, meanwhile, has leveraged its resource endowments and high commodity prices to expand local processing and infrastructure.
China, the largest economy of the three, also has the most mature market. Its 4.6% growth forecast reflects a slower pace than in previous decades amid weakness in the property sector and growing demographic pressures.
Another Slow Year in Europe
Europe occupies much of the lower end of the ranking. The 27-member European Union is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2026, while Russia is forecast at 1.1%. Growth within the EU is stronger in some mid-sized economies, including Poland and Spain.
Several of Europe’s largest economies are expected to grow by less than 1% in real terms. The United Kingdom is forecast at 1.0%, followed by Germany at 0.7% and France at 0.6%. Italy’s 0.5% growth forecast is the lowest across the G20.
Several factors are weighing on European growth prospects, including energy costs and a fragmented capital landscape that can make it more difficult for businesses to expand across borders.
Slow growth also puts pressure on government finances. Many of Europe’s largest economies continue to run sizable budget deficits, making it more difficult to balance spending priorities without adding to borrowing.
What’s Supporting U.S. Growth?
The United States is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2026, putting it ahead of the other major developed economies in the ranking despite headwinds including trade pressures and persistent inflation.
One factor supporting growth is continued investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. Large-scale spending on technology and data centers is helping support capital investment as other parts of the economy face external pressures.
Between 2025 and 2032, annual AI infrastructure spending is projected to approach 4% of U.S. GDP. The scale of this investment exceeds that of many past infrastructure booms, while also increasing the economy’s exposure to continued spending in the sector.
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To see how these growth figures compare with government debt levels, check out Government Debt to GDP Around the World in 2025 on Voronoi.
Ranked: The World’s Best Countries at Science in 2026
See which countries are best at science based on PISA 2025 scores, with China and Singapore leading the global ranking.
Key Takeaways
- China led the PISA 2025 science ranking with an average score of 597, followed by Singapore at 560.
- Asian education systems dominate the top of the ranking, with six of the seven highest scores.
- The United States ranks 13th with an average science score of 502, 20 points above the OECD average of 482.
How do science skills compare around the world?
This graphic ranks participating countries and economies by the average science scores of 15-year-old students in the latest PISA 2025 study, published in September 2026.
PISA assesses students in mathematics, reading, and science. Its science assessment goes beyond recalling facts, testing how well students can explain scientific phenomena, evaluate investigations and evidence, and assess scientific information for decision-making.
More than 760,000 students took part in PISA 2025 across 91 countries and economies, representing roughly 33 million 15-year-olds worldwide.
China in this ranking represents the participating jurisdictions of Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang.
Asia Dominates the Top of the Ranking
Behind China and Singapore, Macao, Taiwan, and Japan round out the top five, while South Korea ranks seventh.
Estonia is the only European country among the top seven, with an average science score of 527.
| Rank | Country | Average PISA score (Science) | Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇨🇳 China | 597 | Asia |
| 2 | 🇸🇬 Singapore | 560 | Asia |
| 3 | 🇲🇴 Macao | 541 | Asia |
| 4 | 🇹🇼 Taiwan | 540 | Asia |
| 5 | 🇯🇵 Japan | 538 | Asia |
| 6 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | 527 | Europe |
| 7 | 🇰🇷 Korea | 526 | Asia |
| 8 | 🇬🇧 UK | 511 | Europe |
| 9 | 🇨🇦 Canada | 510 | North America |
| 10 | 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 509 | Oceania |
| 10 | 🇦🇺 Australia | 509 | Oceania |
| 12 | 🇫🇮 Finland | 504 | Europe |
| 13 | 🇺🇸 United States | 502 | North America |
| 14 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 501 | Europe |
| 15 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | 500 | Europe |
| 16 | 🇦🇹 Austria | 497 | Europe |
What Stands Out About Asia’s Top Performers?
Several of the highest-scoring Asian education systems combine strong academic expectations with learning environments that support consistent performance. China, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea all ranked well above the OECD average in science while also performing strongly in mathematics and reading.
One factor may be fewer classroom distractions. In China, Japan, and South Korea, fewer than 10% of students said classmates were distracted by digital devices during most or every science lesson, compared with 28% across OECD countries. The OECD also found that schools with clear rules around smartphone use generally reported less digital distraction.
These systems also produce a larger share of students with advanced skills. In Singapore, for example, 26% of students reached the top two proficiency levels in science, compared with just 7% across OECD countries.
Some high-performing Asian systems also combine strong results with relatively small links between students’ socioeconomic backgrounds and their science performance, suggesting that their results are not driven solely by affluent students.
Outside school, intensive tutoring and strong academic expectations are also common in parts of East Asia. However, PISA does not isolate these factors as the cause of the region’s higher scores, making it difficult to attribute the performance gap to any single practice.
U.S. Scores Above the OECD Average
The United States scores 502, compared with the OECD average of 482.
Canada ranks ninth at 510, while Australia and New Zealand each score 509.
Together, these English-speaking countries fall within a relatively narrow eight-point range, though all remain below the highest-scoring Asian education systems.
Estonia Leads Europe
Estonia ranks sixth overall with an average science score of 527, making it the highest-scoring European country in the dataset.
The United Kingdom follows among European countries at 511, while Finland scores 504 and Switzerland 501.
Farther down the ranking, many large European economies sit close to the OECD average of 482, including Germany at 486, France and Italy at 483, and Spain at 477.
The OECD notes that several small score differences are not statistically significant, meaning nearby positions in the ranking should not always be interpreted as meaningful performance gaps.
More broadly, PISA 2025 found that roughly three-quarters of students across OECD countries reached at least baseline proficiency in science.
At the same time, the OECD average science score fell to its lowest level recorded in the assessment, continuing a broader decline in student performance.
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If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Countries by Education Spending as % of GDP on Voronoi.
