People are a scarce resource. And we’re making fewer of them.
In the latest national population estimates released by Stats NZ, it was revealed that New Zealand’s estimated natural increase in population is at its lowest since World War II.
Some of that is because we have a higher number of old-age deaths, but births are also decreasing.
And that’s a big concern for our future.
Infometrics principal economist and lead demographer Nick Brunsdon told The Front Page podcast that the falling birthrate will be a problem in 18 years, when today’s newborns become tomorrow’s adults.
“We’re going to find that we can’t just hire more people when we have a problem or when our business grows.
“We’re just not going to have those resources around. So it’ll be about shifting our mindset to realise that people are actually quite a scarce resource,” he said.
What is behind the drop in births?
One answer to that complicated question is that access to birth control means children are now very much a choice rather than the default.
But for many New Zealanders, those reasons include the ever-rising cost of living, increasing social division and anxiety about the future.
“There’s no security. No housing security – I’m 90 days out from having to move house at any point, no job security – even in my government job. At some point I thought I’d have kids, but at nearly 40 I haven’t found the security I need to feel comfortable with that decision,” one social media user said.
“Rationally, why would you bring a child into the world if you cannot look after it? ... There are very harsh consequences for growing up deprived,” another said.
Others have cited technology as driving the change.
A widely circulated video from the Nexus Conference 2025 shows computer scientist and artificial intelligence (AI) critic Connor Leahy’s concerns.
The clip went viral for his opening line – “Do you know how hard you need to abuse a mammal to make them not have children?” – but the substance of his talk was around how constant surveillance and algorithms have changed young people’s behaviour.
Dating app algorithms were not optimised to help people find “the love of your life” but to make them keep coming back to the app.
Youths no longer go dancing and young men no longer ask women out in public, some afraid of messing up on camera.
Leahy said he was 30 years old and not one of his friends had children.
All this to say, there is no one factor behind the falling fertility rate.
But it is clear from the discourse that if life were easier – financially and socially – parenthood is something more Kiwis would choose, and that choice would benefit us all.
If we want more Kiwi babies, we need to make it easier for Kiwis to have babies.
