FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2026|No. 18086
Energy · Markets · Geopolitics

Oil Glut Bets Resurface After US-Iran Peace Deal

Option positions betting on an oil glut have returned as crude prices slide following a US-Iran peace deal.

Crude oil futures slump after US and Iran sign peace deal, reviving contango bets.
Crude oil futures slump after US and Iran sign peace deal, reviving contango bets.
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A slew of all-but-forgotten niche option positions betting on an oil glut are coming back into play as crude futures slump following a peace deal between the US and Iran.

Before the US attacked Iran, some traders had bet that a surplus of crude oil would pull near-term prices below later futures, a market structure known as contango. After the attack, however, prompt prices soared on concern about supply shortages. In late April, August West Texas Intermediate crude futures briefly surged above $5 a barrel over the September contract, which in turn was $4 above October.

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