Stock image of storage tanks with an oil pipeline system (Getty/Prapat Aowsakorn)
Gas prices may be easing now, but oil executives are warning the White House that the real crunch could be just weeks away. With commercial stockpiles and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve sliding toward levels not seen in decades, industry models shared with officials show crude supplies could hit "critical lows" by late summer, driving pump prices beyond $5 a gallon. The warnings come as the Iran war chokes traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil, and as inflation—already running at a three-year high—erodes President Trump's standing with voters ahead of the midterms, the Washington Post reports.
Trump has publicly dismissed the concerns, saying he "loves" inflation and predicting oil will fall "like a rock" once the war ends. Some aides also note prices have dipped in recent weeks, crediting reserve releases and regulatory waivers. But senior industry figures, including American Petroleum Institute chief Mike Sommers, are going public with their concern, saying the administration is underestimating how quickly inventories are draining and how limited tanker traffic remains. "I hope they are paying attention to inventories right now," one industry executive said, per Politico. "You're hitting tank bottom." If prices spike, an industry official said, neither side wants to be blamed for failing to act in time.
