Analysts have sharply raised their 2026 oil price forecasts as hopes fade for a quick normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with a new Reuters poll putting Brent crude at an average of $89.05 per barrel this year, up from $85.08 just a month ago.
The September survey of 30 economists and analysts also raised the average forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $83.90 per barrel from $80.20 in the August poll. Brent forecasts ranged from $77.27 to $97.60, as economists grapple with the guessing game of how sustainable the Gulf oil flow recovery actually is.
Several analysts surveyed by Reuters no longer expect a full restoration of Hormuz traffic in the near term. HSBC is basing its forecast on only gradual improvements in shipping and what it describes as a “structurally impaired” Hormuz, with liquids flows remaining well below the roughly 19-20 million barrels per day that passed through the waterway before the war. DBS Bank said it is not assuming the conflict will be resolved within the next three to six months.
Gulf producers have nevertheless managed to restore a large share of their exports. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports, including shipments by vessels operating with their location transponders switched off, reached 23.3 million bpd over the past week, roughly matching their 2025 average after exports doubled during September. The Goldman estimate covers total Gulf exports, not just visible tanker traffic through Hormuz, and includes dark exports.
China remains another source of uncertainty. Nomisma Energia expects crude imports to strengthen as wartime inventory drawdowns continue to reverse and winter demand approaches. But FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects have become more cautious, cutting their Q4 import forecasts by about 400,000 bpd to 9.2-9.3 million bpd after Brent climbed back above $100, freight costs surged and cheap Iranian and Venezuelan barrels largely disappeared. China's imports have recovered from June's decade low to nearly 9 million bpd in August, but remain well below last year's average.
OPEC+ is unlikely to provide much immediate additional supply. The group is expected to keep its current production targets unchanged when eight members meet on Sunday, according to Reuters sources.
EIU analysts told Reuters that weaker manufacturing activity and slower global economic growth should prevent crude from returning to the highs reached immediately after the conflict began. But they also expect oil inventories to fall substantially as consuming countries continue drawing on commercial and emergency reserves to compensate for lower Gulf supplies.
Most analysts surveyed by Reuters do not expect the market to return to surplus until 2027, when improved Gulf shipping, recovering regional production and continued growth in non-OPEC supply are expected to bring more barrels back onto the market.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
