Crude oil prices fell in early trading, though Brent remained above $100, after a report from Kpler revealed that flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are now above pre-war levels. The same firm made headlines last week after saying tanker traffic via Hormuz was close to pre-war levels, despite Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and Iranian attacks on tankers in Hormuz.
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $101.20 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $89.73 per barrel. Brent was actually up from Friday in absolute terms, and so was WTI, suggesting that some in the trading world, at least, were waiting for harder evidence of improving flows.
According to what Reuters called “provisional data” from Kpler, oil flows out of Hormuz ranged between 19.5 million barrels daily and 22.5 million barrels daily between September 27 and September 29. This is about double the daily flows from a month earlier, and comes despite reports of substantial disruption in Saudi energy infrastructure.
The data also comes after weeks of reports, citing Kpler data again, that daily flows via Hormuz remained below the ten-day moving average, sparking doubts among some energy market commentators. The doubts were reinforced by reports about Iranian attacks on tankers in Hormuz, although some have dismissed the attacks as a factor in prices.
Per the Kpler provisional data, LNG flows out of Hormuz are also at pre-war levels, which is an interesting development given that QatarEnergy is still in force majeure mode on exports, although reports have emerged saying it was looking to buy some LNG cargoes to service some of its long-term contracts. Even with these emergency purchases, it is unlikely that flows out of the world’s third-largest LNG exporters are back to pre-war levels amid a force majeure.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
