In December last year, the U.S. government launched the so-called "Pax Silica" initiative, seeking to build a "safe, resilient, and innovation-driven supply chain" for advanced technologies such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence infrastructure. In this project, the United States regards the Philippines as a key node in Asia, and the Philippines is also seeking to expand economic cooperation with the United States.
However, in the view of analysts, the risks of this cooperation outweigh the benefits. On June 2, Richard Heydarian, a geopolitics professor at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines, wrote in the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post that the Philippines wants to enhance its value in the semiconductor supply chain through the "Pax Silica" project, but President Trump's economic strategy lacks coherence and investment commitments are not guaranteed.
Heydarian believes that "Pax Silica" is clearly aimed at "containing" China in areas such as semiconductors. The Philippines is betting on speculative investment commitments from Western countries, which may not only yield nothing but also anger China.
The article states that for a long time, the United States has maintained maritime dominance in the Asia-Pacific region, controlling the region's security architecture and serving as a major source of capital and investment. In recent years, with the rapid rise of China and its gradual restoration as the dominant power in Asia, the U.S. leadership has been seeking a "constructive response strategy."
The Biden administration and Japan had proposed the "Luzon Economic Corridor" plan, seeking to turn northern Philippines into an investment hub, attracting Australia, Denmark, France, Italy, South Korea and other countries. After the Trump administration took office, it proposed the "Pax Silica" project on the basis of this plan, attempting to attract $100 billion in high-quality investment to the Philippines over the next decade.
At the same time, the Philippines also hopes to create a new engine for economic growth, reverse the decline of manufacturing, and reshape itself as a "non-China" supplier of critical minerals to enter the electric vehicle production network and improve its position in the semiconductor supply chain.
In May this year, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg visited the Philippines to promote the "Pax Silica" initiative. Facing doubts, he refuted on social media: "You have no idea what you're talking about. The key to 'Pax Silica' is to cooperate with countries that excel in different fields, because a secure supply chain benefits everyone."
But Heydarian believes that whether these cooperations can be realized remains unknown. He pointed out that although the Philippines is an important U.S. ally, there is no particularly close economic relationship between the two countries. The Philippines' exports to the United States are only one-tenth of Vietnam's, and U.S. direct investment in Singapore is more than 50 times that in the Philippines. The U.S. and the Philippines have never signed a free trade agreement.
Trump's military strikes against Iran have plunged the Philippines, which is highly dependent on fuel imports, into an energy crisis, hitting the country's economic growth. Philippine President Marcos has expressed dissatisfaction, proposing to "very seriously reshape" relations with China and seeking energy development cooperation with China.
The article also mentioned that it was previously reported that the United States proposed granting diplomatic immunity to U.S. personnel overseeing an industrial center project in the Philippines, which was rejected by the Philippine government. Helberg denied the report, calling it "inconsistent with the facts." But this incident reflects that the United States is also trying to use the convenience of access to the Philippines to strengthen military cooperation with Asia-Pacific allies.
In recent years, the Philippines has expanded the use rights of multiple U.S. military bases, allowed the United States to deploy "Typhon" medium-range missile systems in northern Luzon, and continued to conduct "Balikatan" joint military exercises with the United States. This series of controversial measures is clearly aimed at "containing" China.
Heydarian pointed out that U.S. Asia policy is military-centric and lacks strong economic support on issues like the Philippines. Therefore, the Trump administration hopes to appease Asian allies through the "Pax Silica" project and provide "viable economic projects." However, the project still has strong geopolitical significance, aimed at complementing the U.S. expanding military presence in Asia.
On the other hand, although the Philippines wants to attract more investment, it still faces problems such as uncompetitive production costs, regulatory uncertainties, and weak infrastructure, which have long hindered foreign investment. Whether the Philippines can solve these problems remains to be seen.
Heydarian concluded in the article that the Philippine government seems to pin its hopes on the United States guiding geopolitically driven strategic investments, i.e., building a regional network centered on the Philippines and targeting China. However, the United States is already bogged down in the Iran war, and the Trump administration's economic strategy lacks coherence. It is unclear whether the United States can formulate an effective regional strategy.
He concluded that the Philippines is betting on fragile investment commitments from the United States and Western countries, but these investments may not necessarily materialize and may instead anger China.
