Russian Expert Assesses Possibility of Oil Prices Retreating to 75-80 USD/barrel
According to a Russian expert, Brent crude oil prices could fall back to the 75-80 USD/barrel range and remain around this level for the next 1.5 to 2 months, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes.
A gas station in Canberra, Australia. Photo: THX/TTXVN
Russia's TASS news agency on June 15 quoted Alexey Belogoryev, Director of Research at the Institute of Energy and Finance, sharing this information.
He argued: "I believe Brent oil prices still have room to fall to 75-80 USD/barrel. Prices are likely to fluctuate within this range for about one and a half to two months, as maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz is restored—a process that takes time. At the same time, the 60-day negotiations on Iran's nuclear program are also underway. Of course, that depends on whether the planned agreements are signed on June 19."
According to the expert, oil prices could even fall below the 75 USD threshold, but it would be very difficult to sustain below that level for long.
"All market participants must consider the possibility of conflict reigniting if the negotiations fail. Currently, the probability of negotiation failure is assessed at about 50-50," he said.
Furthermore, Alexey Belogoryev noted that in both the US and Iran, there are hardline forces dissatisfied with the current agreement. Additionally, the factor of Israel—a country that could resume military operations in Lebanon at any time—could likely disrupt the negotiation process or prolong the talks significantly.
Belogoryev emphasized that restoring a stable supply flow through the Strait of Hormuz will take about one and a half months, and operations could return to normal from early August.
"However, the issue is that the months-long crisis has severely undermined confidence in the reliability of supplies from the Persian Gulf. Some importers have restructured their logistics chains as much as possible. More importantly, the fear that everything could fall apart at the last minute will surely make importers act very cautiously," he assessed.
Demand for oil from the Persian Gulf region may not immediately return to pre-conflict levels, and this recovery process could extend through the end of autumn.
A gas station in Tokyo, Japan. Photo: Kyodo/TTXVN
In another development, on June 15, Citibank lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts to 75 USD/barrel and 70 USD/barrel for Q3 and Q4 2026, respectively. This decision was based on expectations that trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz will soon normalize after the US and Iran ratified a memorandum to end hostilities in the Gulf region.
In its latest report, Citi also cut its Brent oil price forecast for 2027 from 80 USD/barrel to 65 USD/barrel. This change indicates the bank is shifting toward a bearish market scenario.
Citi's analysis team said the current base case scenario, with a 60% probability, is that the memorandum will be formally signed and negotiations will help maintain stable trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of July.
Citi experts believe the market has only priced in the value of the memorandum so far, without accounting for a long-term security agreement for the Strait of Hormuz. According to the bank's calculations, if such an agreement is established, oil prices could drop an additional 10-15 USD/barrel from current levels.
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