Russia’s seaborne crude exports fell to their lowest four-week average in a month after shipments from the Baltic port of Primorsk stopped for several days, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Exports averaged 3.59 million barrels per day in the four weeks through October 18, down 110,000 bpd from the previous period.
Weekly shipments fell 390,000 bpd to 3.13 million bpd, the lowest since March. Just 31 tankers loaded 21.91 million barrels, compared with 34 vessels carrying 24.63 million barrels the previous week.
Primorsk appeared to suspend loading for about three days, with satellite images showing empty berths and tanker-tracking data showing no arrivals or departures. Maintenance at the port or its supplying pipeline may have been responsible. Shipments resumed toward the end of the week.
Russia’s crude production has also been declining. OPEC secondary-source estimates put September output at 8.64 million bpd, its lowest since mid-2020 and the tenth consecutive monthly decline.
Ukrainian drone attacks continue to disrupt Russian refining operations. A strike on the Ryazan refinery last Thursday knocked out one of its four primary processing units. Refinery outages can temporarily increase crude available for export, although falling production limits that potential.
Moscow has also made Russian energy data harder to obtain. A September 28 decree restricted public disclosure of refinery production, export contracts, shipping routes, and tanker coordinates.
Russia began commercial exports from Rosneft’s Vostok Arctic project in September, loading approximately 250,000 metric tons aboard three ice-class tankers. Initial exports are expected to average 150,000 bpd this year, well below the project's original 2 million bpd ambition.
Russia’s declining shipments are also cutting export revenue. The weekly value of seaborne crude exports fell by approximately $380 million to $2.33 billion, the lowest in six weeks.
China and India remain Russia’s largest customers, although shipments toward Asian buyers declined to 3.43 million bpd on a four-week average basis, down from 3.54 million bpd.
