What you have already paid
A tariff is a tax collected at the American border, from the American company bringing the goods in. Customs counts every dollar of it. This is that count.
$6.2B tariffs collected on Canadian goods between January and June 2026. Over the same months of 2024, before any of this, it was $211M.
29.1×more duty than the same months of 2024
$46.41per American household, in six months — collected at the border, not at the till
3.09%average rate charged, up from 0.10%
$5.9Bmore than 2024 in the same six months
Duty collected on Canadian goods, January to June each year
2022
$176M
2023
$177M
2024
$211M
2025
$3.6B
2026
$6.2B
2022: $176M, a rate of 0.08 percent. 2023: $177M, a rate of 0.08 percent. 2024: $211M, a rate of 0.10 percent. 2025: $3.6B, a rate of 1.80 percent. 2026: $6.2B, a rate of 3.09 percent.
Where the duty falls, and the rate actually charged
| Goods | Imported | Duty paid | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum and articles thereof | $5.7B | $2.0B | 35.0% |
| Vehicles other than railway rolling-stock; parts | $20.6B | $1.9B | 9.3% |
| Iron and steel | $2.1B | $518M | 25.0% |
| Machinery and mechanical appliances; boilers | $15.1B | $457M | 3.0% |
| Articles of iron or steel | $1.5B | $415M | 27.3% |
| Electrical machinery, equipment and electronics | $6.3B | $203M | 3.2% |
| Wood and articles of wood; charcoal | $4.4B | $190M | 4.3% |
| Furniture; bedding, mattresses and lighting | $2.4B | $80M | 3.3% |
| Aircraft, spacecraft and parts thereof | $4.1B | $54M | 1.3% |
| Optical, photographic and measuring instruments | $2.4B | $52M | 2.2% |
| Copper and articles thereof | $1.7B | $43M | 2.5% |
| Miscellaneous articles of base metal | $715M | $38M | 5.3% |
CON_VAL_YR and CAL_DUT_YR — calendar year-to-date imports for consumption and the duty calculated on them, USD. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, timeseries/intltrade/imports; household count from U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-year 2024, table B11001 (132,737,146 households). This is duty collected at the border from U.S. importers. How much of it reaches a shelf price depends on pass-through, which this data does not measure. It is not a measured increase in what anyone paid at a till.
Modelled estimate — not measured duty
What tariffs cost your household
Everything above is money customs collected on goods from Canada, nothing assumed. This number is different on purpose, in two ways: it covers tariffs on all U.S. imports since 2025 — China, Mexico, the EU, Canada and everyone else, not Canada alone — and it needs one thing no public dataset measures directly: how much of the added duty a business passes on to the price on the shelf. That assumption, and every other one behind this number, is sourced in Method, below.
$1,634estimated added cost per American household per year, from tariffs on all U.S. imports. Range $1,144–$1,634 depending on how much of the duty reaches the shelf — see Method, below.
$221.8Badded to what Americans spend on imported goods, per year
6.6%of all U.S. import value, added since the 2024 baseline
$3.4Ttotal U.S. imports this estimate is calculated against, trailing twelve months
135,760,000U.S. households the total is divided across
Estimated added cost, by category of goods
Machinery, vehicles & electronics
$109.8B
Steel, aluminum & metal goods
$31.3B
Other consumer goods
$26.5B
Clothing & footwear
$17.9B
Materials & industrial inputs
$12.0B
Household & personal care
$12.0B
Food & agriculture
$10.8B
Drinks & tobacco
$1.7B
Machinery, vehicles & electronics: $109.8B, 49.5 percent of the total. Steel, aluminum & metal goods: $31.3B, 14.1 percent of the total. Other consumer goods: $26.5B, 11.9 percent of the total. Clothing & footwear: $17.9B, 8.1 percent of the total. Materials & industrial inputs: $12.0B, 5.4 percent of the total. Household & personal care: $12.0B, 5.4 percent of the total. Food & agriculture: $10.8B, 4.9 percent of the total. Drinks & tobacco: $1.7B, 0.8 percent of the total.
Estimated added cost per household, top 10 of 51 states — coarser than the national figure, see Method
| State | Per household | Total |
|---|---|---|
| MI | $4,000 | $16.4B |
| KY | $3,015 | $5.6B |
| GA | $2,940 | $12.2B |
| CA | $2,804 | $38.4B |
| TX | $2,670 | $30.1B |
| NJ | $2,447 | $8.7B |
| TN | $2,311 | $6.7B |
| NV | $2,191 | $2.7B |
| RI | $2,066 | $917M |
| SC | $1,995 | $4.3B |
CON_VAL_YR / CAL_DUT_YR — imports for consumption and calculated duty, U.S. Census Bureau timeseries/intltrade/imports/hs, HS6, all countries. Pass-through assumed at 100%, sourced in Method below. National and category figures are HS6 x all-countries, using Census-reported calculated duty (a real, collected figure, not a modeled rate table). State figures apply the same HS2-level added rate to each state's own HS2 import mix, because Census does not publish calculated duty at the state level; state totals will not sum exactly to the national total and are not claimed to.
Your state
Choose a stateChoose a state…AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyomingChoose an industry…and an industry (optional)Transportation EquipmentChemicalsMachinery, Except ElectricalComputer and Electronic ProductsPetroleum and Coal ProductsFood and Kindred ProductsPrimary Metal ManufacturingOil and GasElectrical Equipment, Appliances, and ComponentFabricated Metal Products, NESOIAgricultural ProductsPlastics and Rubber ProductsWaste and ScrapMiscellaneous Manufactured CommoditiesPaperOther Special Classification ProvisionsMinerals and OresNonmetallic Mineral ProductsWood ProductsUsed or Second-hand MerchandisePrinted Matter and Related Products, NESOILivestock and Livestock ProductsBeverages and Tobacco ProductsFurniture and FixturesTextiles and FabricsFish, Fresh, Chilled, or Frozen and Other Marine ProductsApparel and AccessoriesTextile Mill ProductsGoods Returned To Canada (exports Only); U.s. Goods Returned and Reimported Items (imports Only)Forestry Products, NESOILeather and Allied ProductsProducts Supporting Agriculture and Forestry
Pick a state to see what the tariffs and the energy trade mean there.
And Canada is taxing you back
Canada answered with tariffs of its own on American goods. The September schedule is already law: it adds products that were not taxed before, and doubles the rate on metals that were.
580American products taxed for the first time
271American steel and aluminum lines going from 25% to 50%
404lines at the new 50% rate
320American food and farm lines. Today: none.
Whose jobs are on the line
Canada chose these products deliberately. $16.0B of American exports sit in headings it taxes today, 10.5% of everything the U.S. sells to Canada. The dark states are the ones that make them.
If you work inany industry — show what Canada taxesTransportation EquipmentChemicalsMachinery, Except ElectricalComputer and Electronic ProductsPetroleum and Coal ProductsFood and Kindred ProductsPrimary Metal ManufacturingOil and GasElectrical Equipment, Appliances, and ComponentFabricated Metal Products, NESOIAgricultural ProductsPlastics and Rubber ProductsWaste and ScrapMiscellaneous Manufactured CommoditiesPaperOther Special Classification ProvisionsMinerals and OresNonmetallic Mineral ProductsWood ProductsUsed or Second-hand MerchandisePrinted Matter and Related Products, NESOILivestock and Livestock ProductsBeverages and Tobacco ProductsFurniture and FixturesTextiles and FabricsFish, Fresh, Chilled, or Frozen and Other Marine ProductsApparel and AccessoriesTextile Mill ProductsGoods Returned To Canada (exports Only); U.s. Goods Returned and Reimported Items (imports Only)Forestry Products, NESOILeather and Allied ProductsProducts Supporting Agriculture and Forestry
U.S. exports to Canada in tariffed headings, in force todayDollarsShareTodayFrom 8 Sept
Most exposed states: MI $5.1B, MO $1.6B, IN $1.5B, OH $1.1B, KY $1.0B, IL $884M, AL $775M, TX $629M.
LessMore darkest: $2.0B or more
ALL_VAL_YR — calendar year-to-date export value, USD. Canada's tariffs are set on 10-digit tariff items but the Census publishes 6-digit headings, so these are exports in headings that contain tariffed lines — an upper bound, not exports actually taxed. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, timeseries/intltrade/exports/statehs.
What Canada is taxing
What Canada taxes are American exports — things American workers grow, catch, forge and build. Today the list is steel and almost nothing else. September's includes groceries.
Tariff lines by product categoryIn force todayFrom 8 September
Steel, aluminum & metal goods
294
332
Food & agriculture
0
320
Machinery, vehicles & electronics
19
106
Clothing & footwear
0
56
Materials & industrial inputs
0
42
Household & personal care
0
32
Other consumer goods
0
5
Steel, aluminum & metal goods: 294 lines today, 332 from 8 September. Food & agriculture: 0 lines today, 320 from 8 September. Machinery, vehicles & electronics: 19 lines today, 106 from 8 September. Clothing & footwear: 0 lines today, 56 from 8 September. Materials & industrial inputs: 0 lines today, 42 from 8 September. Household & personal care: 0 lines today, 32 from 8 September. Other consumer goods: 0 lines today, 5 from 8 September.
The rates
Every line Canada taxes today is 25%. September adds a 50% tier and puts 271 American steel and aluminum lines in it.
Tariff lines by rate, from September 8
15%
21
25%
468
50%
404
15 percent: 21 lines. 25 percent: 468 lines. 50 percent: 404 lines.
The nuclear option
Canada has not done this and this page does not predict that it will. But tariffs are not the biggest lever Canada holds over the American economy. Flip the switch and watch which states have somewhere else to buy energy — and which do not.
Show what Canada supplies
Crude cost per gallon
$0123456789.01234567890123456789
what the U.S. pays Canada
Both figures are prices the United States actually paid this year: $67.17 a barrel to Canada, $77.92 a barrel to everyone else, across 704 million Canadian barrels. Two things this gap is not. It is not a pump price — refining, distribution, tax and margin sit on top of the crude. And it is not all discount: Canadian barrels are largely heavy crude, which prices below lighter grades everywhere it is sold, so much of the difference is grade rather than generosity. These are the two averages the United States paid. We are not going to tell you what replacing one with the other would cost, because that needs assumptions this page does not make.
$63.8Bof energy the United States bought from Canada in six months
Canada's share of every barrel, cubic foot and kilowatt-hour the U.S. imports
Electricity
100% · $1.3B
Natural gas and petroleum gases
94% · $7.4B
Crude oil
61% · $47.3B
Refined petroleum
30% · $7.8B
Every dollar of electricity the United States imported came from Canada. Not almost all of it — the two figures are the same to the dollar.
Electricity: Canada supplies 100 percent of U.S. imports. Natural gas and petroleum gases: Canada supplies 94 percent of U.S. imports. Crude oil: Canada supplies 61 percent of U.S. imports. Refined petroleum: Canada supplies 30 percent of U.S. imports.
Share of each state's imported energy that comes from Canada
Share of imported energy sourced from Canada. Most dependent: OK 100 percent, MT 100 percent, ND 100 percent, SD 100 percent, VT 100 percent, WY 100 percent, MN 100 percent, OR 100 percent, IL 100 percent, CO 100 percent. Least dependent: DE 10 percent, HI 9 percent, LA 8 percent, MD 7 percent, MS 3 percent.
Share from Canadaunder 25% → 100%
The median state buys 94% of its imported energy from Canada. 11 states buy 100% of it there. The 12 below half — CT, GA, FL, TX, AL, NJ — are coastal. They can take a tanker from somewhere else. The interior cannot.
GEN_VAL_YR — calendar year-to-date general import value, USD. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, timeseries/intltrade/imports. These are volumes the U.S. buys today, not a forecast of what a cut-off would cost — that would need assumptions about substitution and price this data cannot support. One asymmetry the numbers do show: oil and gas can arrive by tanker from somewhere else. Electricity cannot. It is wired, and Canada is effectively the only supplier the U.S. has.
Look it up
Every American product on Canada's list — all 1,206 of them. Search by product, code, or category.
ScheduleBothIn force todayFrom September 8CategoryAll categoriesClothing & footwearFood & agricultureHousehold & personal careMachinery, vehicles & electronicsMaterials & industrial inputsOther consumer goodsSteel, aluminum & metal goodsRateAny rate15%25%50%Search
All 1,206 lines
| Tariff item | Product | Category | Rate | Applies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5703.39.10 | Of other man-made textile materials: Other: Machine tuftedCarpets and other textile floor coverings | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 5703.39.90 | Of other man-made textile materials: Other: OtherCarpets and other textile floor coverings | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6104.43.00 | Dresses: Of synthetic fibresApparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6104.63.00 | Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: Of synthetic fibresApparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6109.10.00 | Of cottonApparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6110.20.00 | Of cottonApparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6110.30.00 | Of man-made fibresApparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6116.93.00 | Other: Of synthetic fibresApparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6201.40.10 | Of man-made fibres: Overcoats, raincoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks and similar articlesApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6201.40.90 | Of man-made fibres: OtherApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6202.40.00 | Of man-made fibresApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6203.11.00 | Suits: Of wool or fine animal hairApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6203.31.00 | Jackets and blazers: Of wool or fine animal hairApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6203.41.00 | Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: Of wool or fine animal hairApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6204.43.00 | Dresses: Of synthetic fibresApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6204.49.00 | Dresses: Of other textile materialsApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6210.20.10 | Other garments, of the type described in heading 62,01: Protective suits, to be employed in a noxious atmosphereApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6210.20.90 | Other garments, of the type described in heading 62,01: OtherApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6210.40.10 | Other men's or boys' garments: Protective suits, to be employed in a noxious atmosphereApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6210.40.90 | Other men's or boys' garments: OtherApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6210.50.10 | Other women's or girls' garments: Protective suits, to be employed in a noxious atmosphereApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6210.50.90 | Other women's or girls' garments: OtherApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6211.32.00 | Other garments, men's or boys': Of cottonApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6211.33.00 | Other garments, men's or boys': Of man-made fibresApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6211.43.10 | Other garments, women's or girls': Of man-made fibres: SarisApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 6211.43.90 | Other garments, women's or girls': Of man-made fibres: OtherApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted | Clothing & footwear | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0402.10.10 | In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, not exceeding 1,5%: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0402.10.20 | In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, not exceeding 1,5%: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0402.21.11 | In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, exceeding 1,5%: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Milk: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0402.21.12 | In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, exceeding 1,5%: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Milk: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0402.21.21 | In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, exceeding 1,5%: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Cream: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0402.21.22 | In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, exceeding 1,5%: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Cream: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0402.91.10 | Other: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0402.91.20 | Other: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0402.99.10 | Other: Other: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0402.99.20 | Other: Other: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0404.10.10 | Whey and modified whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Whey protein concentrateDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0404.10.21 | Whey and modified whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Powdered whey: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0404.10.22 | Whey and modified whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Powdered whey: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0404.10.90 | Whey and modified whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: OtherDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0404.90.10 | Other: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0404.90.20 | Other: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 0409.00.00 | Natural honey.Dairy produce; eggs; honey | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1703.10.10 | Cane molasses: Powder with admixture other than colouring or anti-caking agentsSugars and sugar confectionery | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1703.10.90 | Cane molasses: OtherSugars and sugar confectionery | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1703.90.10 | Other: Powder with admixture other than colouring or anti-caking agentsSugars and sugar confectionery | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1703.90.90 | Other: OtherSugars and sugar confectionery | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1901.20.11 | Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In packages of a weight not exceeding 11,34 kg each: Containing more than 25% by weight of butterfat, not puPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1901.20.12 | Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In packages of a weight not exceeding 11,34 kg each: Containing more than 25% by weight of butterfat, not puPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1901.20.13 | Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In packages of a weight not exceeding 11,34 kg each: Other, containing 25% or more by weight of wheat, withiPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1901.20.14 | Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In packages of a weight not exceeding 11,34 kg each: Other, in packages of a weight not exceeding 454 g eachPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1901.20.15 | Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In packages of a weight not exceeding 11,34 kg each: Other, containing 25% or more by weight of wheat, over Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1901.20.19 | Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In packages of a weight not exceeding 11,34 kg each: OtherPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1901.20.21 | Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In bulk or in packages of a weight exceeding 11,34 kg each: Containing more than 25% by weight of butterfat,Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1901.20.22 | Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In bulk or in packages of a weight exceeding 11,34 kg each: Containing more than 25% by weight of butterfat,Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1901.20.23 | Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In bulk or in packages of a weight exceeding 11,34 kg each: Other, containing 25% or more by weight of wheatPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1901.20.24 | Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In bulk or in packages of a weight exceeding 11,34 kg each: Other, containing 25% or more by weight of wheatPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 1901.20.29 | Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In bulk or in packages of a weight exceeding 11,34 kg each: OtherPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods | Food & agriculture | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 3303.00.00 | Perfumes and toilet waters.Essential oils; perfumery and cosmetics | Household & personal care | 50% | 8 Sept |
| 3304.10.00 | Lip make-up preparationsEssential oils; perfumery and cosmetics | Household & personal care | 50% | 8 Sept |
Show 60 more
Pass it on
These are public numbers that almost nobody has seen. Counting them only matters if somebody reads them.
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Method
Every number on this page is measured, with one clearly marked exception. Nothing here is a forecast, a projection, or an estimate built on an assumed rate — except What tariffs cost your household, above, which needs one assumption no dataset measures directly, states it up front, and is labelled everywhere it appears. Everywhere else, where a question could only be answered by assuming something, we say so and leave the number out.
Six public datasets, all free, all citable:
- Duty actually collected on Canadian goods, and the value it was
charged on — U.S. Census Bureau,
timeseries/intltrade/imports(CAL_DUT_YR,CON_VAL_YR). - U.S. exports to Canada by state and commodity —
U.S. Census Bureau,
exports/statehs. - U.S. exports to Canada by state and industry —
U.S. Census Bureau,
exports/statenaics. - U.S. energy imports from Canada by state —
U.S. Census Bureau,
imports/statehs, HS 2709/2710/2711/2716. - Household count — U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-year 2024, table B11001.
- Canada's counter-tariff list — Department of Finance Canada, complete list of U.S. products subject to counter tariffs.
Two tariffs, two payers. Canada's counter-tariffs are paid by Canadian importers and carried by Canadian prices; they hit American exporters, the people who grow, catch and forge what is on the list. Washington's tariffs on Canadian goods are paid at the American border by American importers — that is the duty counted in What you have already paid. Both are real, both are measured here, and they are not the same number.
What we deliberately do not tell you, because the data cannot:
- How much of the duty on Canadian goods specifically reaches a shelf price. That is pass-through, a margin decision made firm by firm, and the Canada duty figures above assume nothing about it — they are duty collected at the border, not a till receipt. The one modelled estimate on this page states a pass-through assumption explicitly, for tariffs on all U.S. imports, not Canada's alone; see below.
- What a tariff will do to any future price, at the pump or anywhere else.
- How many jobs are at risk. Turning export dollars into a job count needs an attribution model we do not have.
- What share of any industry's exports is tariffed. The tariff list is classified by HS and the industry data by NAICS; joining them takes a concordance we do not have, and guessing one would manufacture a number.
Counting tariff lines measures breadth, not money — one line can carry a billion dollars of trade or almost none, which is why the dollar figures come from trade data rather than from counting the list.
List last read August 25, 2026 at 6:08 PM. 1,206 lines parsed. Fingerprint 4fc320037526.
The one modelled number: what tariffs cost your household
Everything above counts duty on Canadian goods only, at the border, with no assumption about pass-through. What tariffs cost your household is different on purpose: it covers tariffs the U.S. has raised on all of its imports since 2025 — China, Mexico, the EU, Canada and everyone else — and it needs one thing no public dataset measures directly: how much of the added duty a business passes on to the price on the shelf. Every assumption behind that number is below, sourced, generated by the model's own code so this text cannot drift from what actually ran.
- Tariff rates come from actual collected duty, not a rate table. Effective tariff rate per HS6 code is CAL_DUT_YR / CON_VAL_YR — calculated duty actually assessed by CBP, divided by the value it was assessed on, both reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This already reflects every Section 232, 301, and IEEPA-successor (Section 122) layer, every USMCA exemption, and every carve-out in force at the time, because it is what was actually collected — not a reconstruction of the underlying legal text. Source: Census Bureau, timeseries/intltrade/imports/hs (CAL_DUT_YR, CON_VAL_YR).
- Pre-escalation baseline: calendar year 2024. 2024. The last complete calendar year before the 2025-2026 tariff escalation began (fentanyl tariffs on China/Hong Kong started January 2025; on Canada and Mexico, February 2025). Netting against this year isolates the escalation's own contribution rather than restating the full pre-existing duty burden as if it were new.
- Consumer pass-through of the added duty. 100%. Assumes the full increase in collected duty ultimately reaches consumer prices, appropriate for an annualized/steady-state estimate rather than a month-one snapshot. Import-price (border) pass-through of the 2018-2019 and 2025-2026 U.S. tariffs is found to be near-complete and fast in the academic literature; retail pass-through is slower but converges close to complete within roughly 6-7 months. A low-end sensitivity (70%) is reported alongside the headline for the short-run/partial-absorption case. Source: Amiti, Redding, Weinstein (2019), 'The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare', Journal of Economic Perspectives; Cavallo, Gopinath, Neiman, Tang (2021), 'Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy', AEA Papers and Proceedings; Fajgelbaum, Goldberg, Kennedy, Khandelwal (2020), 'The Return to Protectionism', Quarterly Journal of Economics; Minton, Ray, Somale (2026), Federal Reserve working paper on consumer price pass-through timing of 2025-2026 tariffs.
- HS6 lines with negligible 2024 baseline value are excluded. $50,000. An HS6 code with under $50,000 of CY2024 imports for consumption is excluded from the incremental-rate calculation: a near-zero denominator turns ordinary reporting noise into an implausible rate swing. Excluded lines' current import value is reported as meta.excluded_ttm_value_usd rather than folded into the total in either direction.
- State breakdown is HS2, not HS6. Census does not publish calculated duty (CAL_DUT_*) at the state level, only nationally. State figures are built by applying the nationally-derived added rate at the HS2 chapter level to each state's own HS2-level import composition (state of destination). This is coarser than the HS6 granularity used for the national and category figures, and state totals will not sum exactly to the national total; the delta is reported in meta.
- Household counts. National: BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey, Table 1800 ('Number of consumer units'), calendar year 2024. State: Census American Community Survey 1-year estimates, table B11001 ('Households'). Source: BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey, Table 1800, 2024; Census ACS 1-year estimates, table B11001.
- Category breakdown's CEX spending reference is partial by design. The category breakdown reuses this repo's existing consumer-facing HS taxonomy (pipeline/hs_chapters.py GROUPS, the same one T1/T2 use). Only groups with a clean, defensible 1:1 match to a BLS CEX top-level spending category carry a 'share of what a household already spends on X' reference (Food, Clothing & footwear, Drinks & tobacco, Household & personal care). Groups like raw steel/aluminum and industrial inputs are producer inputs with no single household spending line — forcing a match there would be worse than reporting none, so cex_reference_annual_household_usd is null for those and callers must not treat null as zero.
What this model does not capture, by its own account:
- Effective-rate deltas at the HS6 level conflate rate/policy changes with product-mix shifts within a heading between the baseline and current period; this is unavoidable at HS6 granularity without unit-quantity data, which most lines do not report.
- Does not model exporter price absorption (foreign sellers cutting prices to hold U.S. market share) separately from importer/retailer margin absorption — both are folded into the pass-through assumption as a single parameter.
- Does not model consumer substitution away from tariffed goods, which would lower the realized cost below this estimate for price-sensitive categories.
- A handful of HS6 codes can show a large negative added rate (effective rate fell since 2024) from exemptions or reclassification; these are left in the net total rather than floored, per the pass_through_rate assumption's framing as a true net.
Assumptions generated August 26, 2026 at 10:25 AM, by the same model run that produced the numbers above.
