Tesla shares, the world's leading manufacturer of electric vehicles and energy storage solutions, are currently trading at around $435. After the extensive correction from the high of $498.80 to $337.10, the price has recovered significantly and is now heading for the upper open gap around $473.81.
From the low of $337.10, Tesla shares have started a strong recovery, recapturing both the 200-day EMA at $396, the 50-day EMA at $406, and the 10-day EMA at $429.01. Currently, the Tesla price is trading at $435 above all relevant moving averages. The 10-day EMA serves as a guide for further price development. As long as Tesla shares trade above it, further rising prices are to be expected. Already on Friday, the 10-day EMA was confirmed in the intraday low before the shares bounced back up. A bullish signal. The target for a further upward movement would be the upper open gap around $473.81. Additional tailwind could come from bullish seasonality. According to seasonal data from the past 10 years, the stock recorded price gains averaging around 18% between June 4 and July 12 with a hit rate of 80%.
In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla produced 408,386 vehicles and delivered 358,023 units, with the majority of 341,893 deliveries going to the Model 3/Y. In the energy segment, 8.8 GWh of storage products were installed. The analyst consensus for Q1 2026 was total revenue of $21.4 billion (median: $21.1 billion), a gross margin of 17.5%, and GAAP earnings per share of $0.16. Non-GAAP earnings per share were estimated at $0.33 in consensus.
For the full year 2026, analysts expect median revenue of around $99 billion, operating profit of about $4.1 billion, and GAAP earnings per share of $1.18. Total deliveries are estimated at a median of around 1.65 million vehicles. In the energy segment, analysts project around 60 GWh of installations, underscoring the growing importance of this business segment.
Conclusion:
Traders could consider a long position via the open-end turbo certificate with WKN LX85A7 to achieve a return of +81.76% if the underlying rises to $473. The stop-loss could be placed at $415, corresponding to a loss of -51.44% in the leveraged product. The risk-reward ratio of this trading idea is 1.59.
The information provided does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell the mentioned securities. The securities discussed are very volatile and high-risk investment instruments. This is not investment advice, and every decision is made at your own risk. Note: Stop-loss levels and profit targets are for orientation only and should be adjusted to individual risk and money management as well as daily market developments. Profits should be realized independently. Achieving the price target is based on the specified target price of the underlying. The author is not invested in Tesla at the time of analysis.
