A Royal LePage report predicts that the Greater Toronto Area and Greater Vancouver Area will see aggregate price drops of two and 4.5 per cent, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same period last year.
Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold, Royal LePage Signature Realty, in Richmond Hill, said it comes down to “consumer confidence.”
Buyers are worried about their jobs, tariffs, grocery and gas bills, Zigelstein said.
“People just don’t have the excess money to start considering moving up in a home or buying their first home if they’re really strangled with the costs that they have right now.”
Royal LePage blames trade war tensions, which flared up in the summer as talks between Canada and the U.S. collapsed, and ongoing interest rate uncertainty for the predicted price declines.
“For many buyers, the hesitation is less about what they can afford today than how secure they feel about tomorrow,” added Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage, in a press release.
“Buyers have more negotiating power, but little control over the forces shaping their confidence.”
Meanwhile, the report forecasts modest aggregate price gains in other regions, including the Greater Montreal Area (three per cent), Ottawa (three per cent), and Quebec City (two per cent).
Aggregate prices are calculated through a weighted average of the median values of all housing types, according to Royal LePage, and include both resales and new builds.
A four per cent increase is forecast for Halifax, and a two per cent increase for Edmonton. That all evens out to a national aggregate price increase of one per cent, year over year.
However, the report still forecasts that Toronto and Vancouver areas will have the highest aggregate prices in the country in the fourth quarter, at roughly $1.063 million and $1.126 million, respectively. The market with the next highest predicted prices is Ottawa, at just under $800,000.
Both the Toronto (3.7 per cent) and Vancouver areas (four per cent) saw price declines in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the same time last year. The national aggregate price fell 0.8 per cent over the same period.
In the Toronto area, the median price of a condo decreased 4.1 per cent year over year to about $642,000 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a detached home fell 2.8 per cent to about $1.364 million, the report noted.
Factors like the trade war and inflation impact the whole country. But Zigelstein said the Toronto and Vancouver areas are also influenced by lower immigration and falling rents, which make it more attractive for buyers to keep sitting on the sidelines.
The weakening of the GTA condo market has also played a “huge role from 2022 to where we are today,” he said.
As for what happens next year, he thinks it will be more of the same. But he sees Toronto as several different markets.
In some areas, like the Beach, for example, properties are still going fast.
Small condos, on the other hand, continue to be a hard sell.
“There’s a lot of those out there and there will continue to be because there just doesn’t seem to be a market for it,” Zigelstein said.
