President Donald Trump floated paying a $5,000 “dividend” to every American adult if – and only if – Republicans win the November elections.
“Because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000,” he said. “We'll call it the Trump Dividend. Congratulations. Now all we have to do is win.”
No one was confused about his intentions. Poll after poll has brought bad news for Republicans as the elections get closer. That includes Trump, who isn’t on the ballot this year but whose presidency would certainly feel the aftershocks if Democrats retake one or both chambers of Congress. With those majorities would come new investigative powers.
Experts immediately raised logistical questions about the “dividend”: Could Trump do this without Congress? How much would this add to the already burdensome national debt? How could the president enforce his other condition, that the money be spent in the United States?
Some of Trump’s political allies came out strongly against the idea. But with few exceptions, observers did not ask whether the idea of promising money based on voting results would be a political winner.
Two weeks after Trump first mentioned the idea, it turns out that’s the more interesting question. And a new NBC opinion poll says the answer is “no.”
Independents Aren’t Sold … or Is It Bought?
According to that assessment, 21% of voters say they’re more likely to support a candidate who backs the plan, while 46% say they’d be less likely.
The problem for Trump is pretty obvious: A plurality of Republicans say it would make no difference to how they vote; Democrats are almost in lockstep against the idea; and it’s not a winner with independents.
Forty-five percent of those unaffiliated folks say they would be less likely to support a candidate who backs the dividend, and just 13% say it would make them more likely to do so.
Ouch.
The “why” of the independent opposition isn’t immediately obvious. Some surely worry about the state of the nation’s finances. But others may simply have political promise fatigue. Trump is increasingly the boy who cried “check.”
After all, the $5,000 “Department of Government Efficiency” checks Trump promised from supposed savings in government spending never showed up. Likewise for the “dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!)” that Trump said would come out of tariff revenue.
Trouble for the Trump Agenda
It’s not just the chimerical “dividend.” The NBC poll found that other signature Trump policies aren’t exactly redounding to the GOP’s benefit with under two months before Election Day.
- War with Iran? Just 24% of respondents said they’d be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports it, against 57% who said less likely. One-third of voters say the conflict has been worth it, while 62% disagree.
- The “big, beautiful bill” vehicle for Trump tax cuts? Thirty-six percent more likely. Forty-two percent less likely.
It’s just one poll, to be sure. And some other core Trump policies help rather than hurt – 45% say they’d be more likely to support a candidate who favors deporting undocumented immigrants, while 39% say less likely.
Republicans still have the edge on issues like crime, border security and immigration writ large. The GOP is also viewed more favorably overall, with 36% reporting a positive view of the party, compared to 29% for Democrats.
But on the economy, which is typically the top issue on voters’ minds, 55% of respondents said Trump’s approach has made things worse, up from 48% in March. Just 26% say he has helped.
A lot can happen in the 40-odd days before the election. But it seems that, right now, Trump is not … paying political dividends for his party.
