Trump’s economic pressure on Iran cannot achieve war objectives
Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a DC-based geopolitical risk consultancy, says that while the US economic pressure campaign on Tehran is punishing for millions of Iranians, it was not clear how it could help achieve the Trump administration’s objectives in the war.
“The daily economic challenges and the humanitarian crisis in Iran were certainly set to worsen as a consequence of the Trump administration’s campaign,” he told Al Jazeera.
However, when it comes to its effectiveness in achieving war objectives, he said, “I had serious doubts. For many years, Iran had been under intense economic pressure and living under sanctions had been a reality.”
“Over time, the Iranians found many ways to circumvent pressure, and in the context of the current US-Iran crisis, it was very clear that the Islamic Republic had cards to play that could make the US and other countries pay a very steep price for imposing these intensified economic sanctions on Iran,” Cafiero added.
He also noted that China had been Iran’s leading trading partner, helping Tehran to circumvent Western economic pressure.
“And if the Trump administration was not going to challenge China on its Iran relations, I thought it was quite clear that China, as an Asian giant, could help Iran weather the storm,” Cafiero said.
WATCH: Trump says US may attack Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain ‘very soon’
US President Donald Trump called the war with Iran “small potatoes”, saying just 18 Americans had been killed compared with 100,000 in Vietnam.
He called US strikes “intermittent” and threatened to attack Pickaxe Mountain, whose tunnels are said to hold Iran’s enriched uranium.
How many people has Israel killed and injured in Gaza?
A recap of recent developments
- Israeli strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon kill at least three people and injure 23, the Lebanese Health Ministry says.
- US President Donald Trump has again threatened to attack Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain “very soon”, repeating a warning he first issued in mid-July.
- Iran’s air defence commander, Brigadier-General Alireza Elhami, says that Iran is “ready for any kind of confrontation” – now or in the future – because “the threat is not over”.
- The head of Iran’s Basij paramilitary security force says that the US must return to the June memorandum of understanding if diplomatic efforts to end the war are to resume.
- The US State Department tells Al Jazeera that Washington “does not support any plan” for the expulsion of Palestinians following Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz’s call for de-populating Gaza as the only “solution” to the crisis.
- The US government has approved a $5 billion sale of bombs, guidance kits, and other equipment to Saudi Arabia, which has been repeatedly attacked during the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran.
- Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza says eight Palestinians have been killed and 31 have been injured in the past 24 hours, including one death from previous wounds.
- Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has unveiled a $20bn plan to relocate nearly 2 million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip over a seven-year period, Israel’s Channel 14 reports.
Welcome to our coverage
Hello, and welcome to our live coverage of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran.
Stay with us for the latest news and analyses from across the Middle East and beyond.
You can find our updates from Friday, September 4, here.
Smoke rising from a controlled explosion carried out by Israeli forces at a site in the nearby village of al-Mansouri in southern Lebanon on September 4, 2026 [Kawnat Haju/AFP]
