As if the tenth consecutive day of cross-attacks between the United States and Iran across the Middle East were not enough, overshadowing the diplomatic efforts underway in Pakistan to try to save the already shattered provisional ceasefire agreement, came the words of Donald Trump. The United States will strike "very soon" Pickaxe Mountain, that is, the fortified Iranian underground site located near one of Iran's main nuclear enrichment plants, he assured, clarifying that the United States will not leave the country anytime soon. And despite the Iranians' "desperate" desire for a meeting to end the war, "until they are ready for a meaningful meeting we have no interest in meeting them," Trump quipped. His words, spoken in the Oval Office of the White House alongside Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, came at the same time that in Pakistan, the mediating country that helped reach the first agreement, Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni first met with the army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and then with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The latter expressed deep concern over the recent escalation between the United States and Iran and urged all parties to show restraint and avoid actions that could further destabilize the region. The situation, according to what Axios reports, teeters between the attempt by regional mediators to try to relaunch a 10-day truce and the fact that Trump is evaluating whether to pursue the diplomatic path or a massive military escalation together with Tel Aviv. Although Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that "at the moment the State of Israel has no interest in being involved in a campaign."
To the new attacks carried out by the US - which according to Centcom hit military command centers, naval resources, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems "with the aim of reducing Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz" - Tehran responded with raids on Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. In Bahrain, the Pasdaran claimed to have also hit an Amazon data center, while Kuwait reported that Iranian raids on its territory attacked vital power plants and desalination plants. Beyond the military plan, the consequences for global trade are worrying. Tehran reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as long as aggressive US actions continue. But another key chokepoint is under threat, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is the gateway to the Red Sea. The Houthi rebels of Yemen, backed by Iran, following the announcement of a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, said they forced 6 ships to reverse course in the Red Sea. Not only that: three group officials reported that on Monday they warned international shipping companies to avoid transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. With Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has so far relied on an oil pipeline to the Red Sea to funnel millions of barrels of oil onto the market. However, Trump seemed to downplay this: the Red Sea blockade "hasn't happened yet, it could happen," "if something like that happens, we'll deal with it." A blockade of traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait would force shipping companies to divert routes around the Cape of Good Hope, off the coast of South Africa, which would significantly lengthen voyages and costs.
