The government's baseline forecast assumes that from next year the security situation will significantly improve (at least the active phase of the war will end). At the same time, from next year the minimum wage will increase from 8,647 to 9,546 hryvnias, and the dollar exchange rate will reach 48.3 UAH/$ by the end of 2027.
This is stated in the budget declaration adopted by the government. It assumes that the security situation will "significantly improve" in 2027. In fact, this means that the active phase of the war will end from next year. This scenario implies that the economy will start growing at rates above 5% from 2028.
"It envisages a transition of the economy from a recovery phase to sustainable growth with expansion of production capacity, normalization of infrastructure functioning, and gradual recovery of the labor market. This scenario is the basis for the indicators of the Budget Declaration," the Finance Ministry's explanation says.
Next year, GDP will grow by 4.5%. A significant reduction in inflation is also expected from 2028 (to 6.9%), while next year prices will rise by 8.9% according to the first forecast.
The dollar exchange rate will grow at the following pace:
- in 2026 – 44.4 UAH/$ on average (45.8 UAH/$ at year-end);
- in 2027 – 47.1 UAH/$ on average (48.3 UAH/$ at year-end);
- in 2028 – 49.1 UAH/$ on average (50.1 UAH/$ at year-end);
- in 2029 – 50.7 UAH/$ on average (51.5 UAH/$ at year-end).
The minimum wage according to this forecast will increase as follows:
- in 2027 by 10.4% – to 9,546 hryvnias;
- in 2028 by 8.7% – to 10,377 hryvnias;
- in 2029 by 7.1% – to 11,114 hryvnias.
The Budget Declaration is the main strategic document of the country's financial policy, defining its benchmarks for the next three years. In it, the Ministry of Finance sets the main macroeconomic indicators (forecast hryvnia exchange rate, inflation level, GDP growth rates), as well as expenditure limits for various departments. In simpler terms, it is a "roadmap" that is used to develop a detailed budget for each specific year.
However, in recent years – due to high uncertainty, war, and instability of international aid – the Ministry of Finance has been forced to constantly review and adjust these indicators under the influence of new realities. Therefore, the figures in the declaration are currently only preliminary benchmarks that may change before the final approval of the annual budgets.
As OBOZ.UA previously wrote, Ukraine already has the lowest minimum wage in Europe. This refers not only to its nominal size but also to the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage.
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