Climate Crisis Deepens as World Misses Crucial Emissions Targets
The world must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 to limit the worst effects of global warming, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said in its annual Emissions Gap Report, warning that the world is on track to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold and that urgent action is needed to limit the overshoot.
Although the goal of preventing temperatures from temporarily exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels is now considered out of reach, UNEP said it was still possible to limit the scale and duration of the overshoot and bring temperatures back below that threshold by the end of the century.
If current policies remain in place, global temperatures are projected to rise by 2.8°C this century. Even if countries fulfill their updated climate pledges, warming would still reach 2.6°C, far above the target set by the Paris Agreement.
The report highlights a widening gap between governments' promises to reduce emissions and the measures they are taking. Although 167 countries have submitted climate action plans covering 83% of global greenhouse gas emissions, their commitments remain insufficient to meet the agreed climate goals.
To limit peak warming to 1.7-1.8°C before returning to 1.5°C by 2100, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels. Large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere would also be necessary.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said the opportunity to avoid exceeding 1.5°C had been lost because governments had failed to make the necessary efforts, but urged countries not to abandon the target.
“We can make the overshoot as brief and as short as possible. It’s not time to throw in the towel and give up. This is about how to find our way back, as shortly and quickly as possible,” Andersen said.
The report estimates that global temperatures have already risen by about 1.4°C compared with preindustrial levels. Every additional fraction of a degree and every further year of warming beyond 1.5°C increase the risks of extreme weather and potentially irreversible changes, including the destruction of coral reefs, melting permafrost and retreating ice sheets.
The consequences are already visible. Europe recorded more than 32,000 excess deaths linked to heat this summer, while nearly 1,500 people died in flash floods in Nepal and Tibet after climate change contributed to conditions leading to a glacier collapse. Scientists warn that further warming could accelerate these impacts and trigger feedback loops that release additional greenhouse gases.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has described the failure to meet climate targets as a leadership problem. The Group of 20 economies account for three-quarters of global emissions, and Guterres has called on all countries, particularly the largest emitters, to do more to curb warming.
The report's outlook has deteriorated compared with last year, partly because of the United States' formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revisions to historical emissions estimates, said co-author Anne Olhoff.
Although emissions growth has slowed among G20 economies, the United States was a major exception. Preliminary estimates for 2025 showed emissions rising in the United States, Indonesia and China, while India, Russia and the European Union recorded declines.
The US increase of 133 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent was substantially larger than that of any other country, driven by rising electricity demand and a rebound in coal-fired power generation. Turkey recorded the next-largest increase and is due to host the UN climate summit in Antalya from Nov. 9 to 20.
The United States is the world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China. President Donald Trump has called climate change a hoax, rolled back clean energy policies and expanded fossil fuel production. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said no country was immune to the consequences, which were being felt “on every nation on the planet, including the US.”
To achieve a 50% chance of returning global temperatures to 1.5°C by 2100, warming would need to peak at around 1.7-1.8°C near the middle of the century before declining. This would require cutting coal-fired electricity generation by at least 75% by 2035 compared with 2025 and effectively phasing it out worldwide by 2040.
Methane emissions would also need to fall by at least 25% by 2035 and 40% by 2040, relative to 2025 levels. Methane is a particularly powerful greenhouse gas, making reductions an important way to slow warming.
Bill Hare, chief executive of the global policy institute Climate Analytics, said governments needed to act without further delay.
“The main takeaway is simple - governments need to get on with enacting policies that cut fossil fuel use as soon as possible,” Hare said.
Climate-vulnerable developing countries have accused major emitters of abandoning the Paris Agreement's goals, setting the stage for a confrontation over the 1.5°C target at the COP31 summit in November.
Mohamed Adow, director of the Kenya-based think tank Power Shift Africa, criticized governments for failing to act despite decades of scientific warnings.
“This is a historic failure of political leadership. The science has been clear for decades, but governments have chosen delay over action. The consequences will be measured in lives lost, not just degrees of warming,” Adow said.
Despite the worsening outlook, the report highlights evidence that climate policies can reduce emissions. Drawing on more than 200 studies, it examines measures including carbon taxes, government targets, building regulations and subsidies for low-carbon technologies.
Carbon-pricing schemes have been among the most extensively studied measures. China's pilot programs reduced emissions by about 11%, while the European Union's emissions trading system delivered an 8% reduction compared with projected levels without those policies.
The expansion of renewable energy also offers grounds for optimism. Since the Paris Agreement was adopted a decade ago, global renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated, while solar power installations have expanded seven times faster. In 2024, more than 90% of renewable energy projects were cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives.
Although total energy supplies from coal, oil and gas have continued to increase, growth has been slower than projected in 2015. Coal consumption is expected to peak and begin declining by the end of the decade.
Andersen said existing successes showed that rapid emissions reductions were achievable, but governments needed to introduce policies capable of delivering deep and sustained cuts.
