Climate: The 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement is no longer viable
The target set in 2015 by the Paris Agreement—to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100—has become unachievable within the span of a single decade, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) notes in its 2026 Emissions Gap Report.
“The opportunity to bridge the 1.5°C emissions gap with ‘no or limited’ overshoot has been lost,” states the report, titled “The Point of Return.”
Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels is now imminent and inevitable.
New goal: not exceed 2°C, then bring the temperature back down to 1.5°C
“Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C raises the risk of irreversible changes including in ice sheets, permafrost carbon, ocean circulation and coral systems, along with devastating human impacts,” the report states.
The urgent task is to ensure that global warming remains below the 2°C threshold, with the aim of returning to 1.5°C by the end of the century. This is the only option left, according to UNEP.
Highly inadequate climate plans
To achieve this, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would need to be reduced by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040, relative to 2025 levels.
The current trajectory falls far short of this. Even assuming that the commitments made by governments—known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs)—are fully implemented, emissions would only be reduced by 5% to 8% by 2030 and by 11% to 15% by 2035, compared to 2025 levels.
The recommended efforts are “close to 6 per cent every single year until 2035,” declares the UN Secretary General.
How can this be achieved?
The UN Chief outlined the levers for action available to humanity:
“The emissions gap is now a leadership gap. And the world is running out of time and excuses to close it.
Governments must go much further and faster. Accelerate clean energy and electrification across every sector.
Adopt credible roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels – with clear timelines and protection for affected workers and communities.
Invest in grids and storage. Improve energy efficiency. Cut methane emissions. Halt and reverse deforestation.”
What are the specific targets?
The report indicates that by 2035, the capacity of renewable energy sources must triple compared to 2025 levels. Furthermore, the phase-out of fossil fuels requires reducing the respective shares of coal, oil, and gas in energy production by 55%, 15%, and 5% by 2035.
By 2040, reductions of at least 75%, 30%, and 35% would be necessary.
Large-scale operations to remove CO2 from the atmosphere will also be imperative to return to the 1.5°C threshold—or even lower.
UNEP estimates that 320 gigatons of CO2 —equivalent to eight times the emissions recorded in 2024— must be removed from the atmosphere by the end of the century. This implies biological solutions, such as reforestation, as well as technological approaches involving the compression, mineralisation, and underground storage of CO2.
Reversing the trend remains possible
Accelerating the momentum is still possible, according to UNEP, given the significant progress made since 2015.
“Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated, with solar PV build-out increasing seven times faster”, states UNEP Chief Inger Andersen.
“Total energy supply from coal and oil has grown slower than projected. Climate policies have delivered real emission reductions across the world and across sectors. Several G20 members have shown sustained emission reductions, and some are aligning policies with net-zero pledges.”
The progress made remains insufficient, particularly with regard to fossil fuels and deforestation.
Because the climate knows no borders, limiting any overshoot of 1.5°C as much as possible requires action across the entire economy and on a global scale.
