Intense trade talks are nearing their conclusion as Canada aims to avert new tariffs from the Trump administration, which are set to take effect in less than 48 hours. Canadian negotiators have been in Washington for a week, striving to reach an agreement before new 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion (C$28 billion) worth of Canadian imports are imposed on Wednesday.
Prime Minister Mark Carney remained tight-lipped about the negotiations when questioned by reporters on Monday, stating that given the "very delicate and intense" discussions, it is "not the time to negotiate in public." While he asserted that Canada was negotiating from "a position of strength," the stakes are high for the prime minister and his team to secure a deal before the Trump administration's latest financial measure, affecting about 5% of all Canadian imports, takes hold.
Despite a series of meetings between Canadian negotiators and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in recent days, a final agreement has yet to be reached. "Our job is not yet done," US-Canada Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said on Monday as he departed Greer's office.
Both sides have acknowledged the difficulty of the talks. Trump has characterized Canada as "nasty" on trade, a description of the negotiations that Carney did not entirely dispute. He has also warned that "the time to get tougher" would come if a deal is not reached. Even if an agreement is made, Carney will face the challenge of convincing a public that is frustrated with and skeptical of the US administration to accept any concessions. He will also require the approval of the provinces for any compromises.
The US has requested several concessions from Canada, including the removal of its remaining retaliatory tariffs on American autos and adjustments to its dairy quotas. Additionally, the US has asked for the ban on US alcohol sales, implemented by most Canadian provinces early last year in response to Trump's tariffs, to be lifted. This concession would depend on the agreement of the provinces, which have jurisdiction over alcohol sales in their respective regions. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, known for his firm stance with the US, stated last week that any agreement on alcohol sales is conditional. He indicated that an agreement on alcohol would be contingent on securing a fair deal that protects Canada's steel, auto, forestry, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors.
Canada has been seeking a deal that would lead to the US dropping or reducing tariffs on its steel, aluminum, automobile, and lumber sectors, all of which have negatively impacted the country's economy.
Carney might also encounter resistance regarding any concessions on dairy, particularly in Quebec, where Premier Christine Fréchette has declared that supply management is non-negotiable. Trump contends that the current system, which includes production and import quotas for dairy, eggs, and poultry, is unfair to American farmers seeking to sell their products in Canada.
Canadians are also reluctant to make significant concessions to the US, even as they desire more stability. A recent poll by Abacus Data reveals that 74% of Canadians feel the trade dispute has affected their households, and 36% favor Canada responding with new counter-tariffs, even at the risk of further domestic economic hardship. Only 18% support concessions, such as ending provincial bans on American alcohol, to remove or reduce US tariffs.
Reports in Canadian media also indicated that Canada's chief negotiator, Janice Charette, warned her US counterparts that the new tariffs could jeopardize future trade negotiations if they are enacted on Wednesday. Carney has stated he will not sign a deal unless it is beneficial for Canada, although he has not specified what such a deal would entail. On Monday, he remarked, "We'll have opportunities over the next 48 hours to discuss in more detail as the negotiations go forward." He also mentioned plans to speak with Trump before the Wednesday deadline and that he has "plans for any situation that may arise" should the talks fail.
Conservative trade critic Shuvaloy Majumdar issued a statement calling for "a measure of relief" from economic anxiety, adding, "We have grown tired of seeing our country used as a punching bag." He expressed a shared hope that Prime Minister Carney will achieve a genuine victory at the negotiating table.
